Why eight preseason ranked teams will go from CFB Playoff Contenders to Pretenders

ESPN has given a jump start on a list of CFB Playoff contenders. Using its analytics ESPN calculates 30 teams have an 11.5% chance or better to make the 12-team field. The list of Pretenders below starts with the 30 teams, plus the Liberty Flames, whose easiest schedule in college football puts them into Playoff contention (ESPN calculates Liberty's chances at 9.6%).

CFB Playoff Pretenders - Aug. 4

• Tennessee Volunteers - ESPN gives the Vols a 36.9% chance, which is the 9th highest probability. The Vols lost considerable production from last season. Much of that lost production is on defense, from a team that was not good in pass defense last season. Adding to that weakness for the 2024 season, the Vol their top six tacklers from last season. The Vols' HUNH will have to outscore too many opponents against a schedule ESPN ranks as the 8th toughest in the FBS. With projected losses to Alabama and Georgia, Tennessee must beat NCSU in Charlotte and Oklahoma in Norman or miss the Playoffs.

• Oklahoma Sooners - ESPN gives the Sooners a 36.6% chance; 10th best to make the Playoff field. According to ESPN, Oklahoma's schedule is one notch tougher than Tennessee's at 7th toughest. It appears to be much tougher. The Sooners get Texas in Dallas, Alabama, and Tennessee at home, plus road games against Ole Miss, Missouri, and LSU. Oddsmakers have the Oklahoma over/under at 7.5 wins. On3's JD Pickell stated the Sooners will be lucky to win six games.

• LSU Bengal Tigers - Brian Kelly has been clear that defense cost LSU a Playoff berth last season. It could happen again in 2024. LSU gave up an average of 28 points last season; next to last among SEC teams. The Bengal Tigers were equally bad against the run and the pass. Kelly cleaned house and LSU will likely be better defensively, but matching last season's offensive output without Jayden Daniels seems impossible. Last season Daniels was the SEC's top passer and the league's top rusher in yards-per-carry. Garrett Nussmeier will not come close to matching Daniels' production. ESPN gives LSU a 25.3% chance, and the No. 23 SOS might give LSU a chance. But, a good LSU team will miss the Playoffs with three losses.