Why eight preseason ranked teams will go from CFB Playoff Contenders to Pretenders

• SMU Mustangs - With a projected SOS of No. 73, SMU should have a good chance to make the Playoffs. ESPN gives them a 16.6% chance, but that is too high. Projections have SMU as the ACC's fourth or fifth-best team and the ACC will at most get two Playoff teams.

• Southern Cal Trojans - ESPN gives the Trojans a 13.4% chance. The USC SOS is No. 27, and the Trojans could be facing four losses from LSU, Michigan, Penn State, and Notre Dame. A fifth-place Big Ten team might come close, but finish short of a Playoff berth.

• Auburn Tigers - ESPN including Auburn in its top 30 Playoff contenders is a bad joke. Either that or the algorithm needs to be scrapped. The ESPN FPI gives the Tigers the nation's fifth-toughest schedule. Eight wins would earn Hugh Freeze some Coach of the Year votes. ESPN gives Auburn a 13.5% chance; probably two or three times higher than it should be.

• Boise State, UTSA, and Liberty - If ESPN projections are accurate one of the three teams will make the Playoff field. If the Playoff was structured to follow its original intent of picking the best teams, none of the three would make the field. The ESPN probability for Boise State is 16.4%; UTSA is 15.6%, and Liberty is 9.6%. One will make it and in short order exit.

The Bama Hammer Pretender list takes ESPN's Contenders from 31 to 23. After each week of the season, Bama Hammer will update the Pretender list.