Why returning production statistics are misleading for Alabama in 2024

Returning production statistics are among the most commonly cited metrics used when trying to predict how good a college football team will be in a given season. In the age of the transfer portal, the value of these statistics is becoming increasingly difficult to gauge.

For example, consider Dabo Swinney’s Clemson Tigers, a program that infamously does not use the transfer portal. For the Tigers, returning production statistics mean almost everything. Outside of true freshmen, Clemson won’t have anything outside of that returning production. As a result, it must rely heavily on the development of the players that were on the roster last season. 

On the other hand, returning production metrics can tell you very little about Deion Sanders’ Colorado Buffaloes. Coach Prime brought in an obscene 43 transfers and saw 41 leave, replacing over half of his roster via the portal. 

Heading into 2024 and the first season under new coach Kalen DeBoer, Alabama Football falls somewhere in the middle. A quick glance at returning production will tell you that the Tide is 100th nationally per Bill Connelly, which might lead a casual fan to assume that Bama is in trouble. Of course, Alabama recruits at a high level every year so it will never lack top-tier talent, but it won’t enter 2024 with as much proven experience as other teams.  

On the offensive side of the ball, this number is slightly misleading. Sure, Bama loses almost all of its offensive statistical production outside of Jalen Milroe. Its top two running backs, Jase McClellan and Roydell Williams, and top three receivers in Jermaine Burton, Isaiah Bond, and Amari Niblack are all gone. However, those close to the program believe that Alabama’s current crop of skill players have a much higher collective ceiling.

Running backs Jam Miller and Justice Haynes can be game-changing talents. With transfer receiver Germie Bernard and true freshman Ryan Williams in the fold, Bama could have its first 1,000-yard receiver since 2021. Add in veterans Kobe Prentice and Kendrick Law with another year of experience, and Milroe’s passing game should be much improved. Though returning production is down on paper, the Alabama offense should be more explosive and more efficient in 2024.  

Defensively, returning production more closely reflects the question marks Bama faces. In defensive lineman Justin Eboigbe, pass rushers Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell, and defensive backs Kool-Aid McKinstry, Terrion Arnold, and Caleb Downs, the argument could be made that the defense lost its top six playmakers.

Alabama still returns a lot of depth along the defensive front, which should help it to control the line of scrimmage. Additionally, linebackers Deontae Lawson and Jihaad Campbell and safety Malachi Moore are all among the best in college football at their respective positions. 

This Alabama defense has a solid foundation and a high floor, but it must find some game-changing pass rushers and lockdown corners to be truly elite. Though it got some necessary reinforcements in the transfer portal, the talent it lost to the NFL Draft will be very difficult to replace.