Four CFB Playoff rankings down, with two to go, the Alabama Crimson Tide sits precariously at No. 10. The good news is Alabama controls its final ranking. Win the Iron Bowl and the SEC Championship Game, and Alabama will move up in the rankings. A close loss in the SEC Championship might be all the Crimson Tide needs for a first round playoff road game. If the Crimson Tide sustained a 'bad loss' in the SEC Championship Game, Alabama would likely miss the playoffs.
What is a bad loss? It is whatever the Playoff Selection Committee deems it to be. There have been indications that the committee will rely on 'eye ball' tests more than data points. These informed assessments are subjective, making them impossible to predict.
The current No. 11 and No. 12 seeds, BYU and Miami, are in eject pods for the final rankings to make room for the ACC Champion and the top-ranked Group of Six champion. No. 24 -ranked Tulane leads the field of lesser teams.
Potentially Alabama's No. 10 ranking is almost as vulnerable to a bid-stealer as are BYU and Miami. If BYU beats UCF on Saturday and follows that by winning the Big 12 Championship, the Cougars could knock Alabama out of the playoffs. Even with a Big 12 championship loss, Texas Tech will be in the playoff field. Two from the Big 12 could mean only four from the SEC, and Oklahoma's win over Alabama would bump the Crimson Tide out.
What the Alabama Crimson Tide Needs
In order of the Alabama's best to worst chance for the playoffs
- Beat Auburn - Win the SEC Championship Game
- Beat Auburn - Lose the SEC Championship by a close score
- Beat Auburn and BYU loses to UCF or maybe BYU losing to Texas Tech again would be enough
- Beat Auburn and Miami lose to Pitt on Saturday
- Beat Auburn and Oklahoma lose to LSU in Norman on Saturday
- Beat Auburn and Notre Dame lose to Stanford on Saturday, but the playoff committee loves Notre Dame so much, the Fighting Irish might survive it.
- Beat Auburn and Ole Miss lose to Mississippi State on Saturday
In summary, except for the Crimson Tide controlling its own destiny, the other scenarios are filled with 'ifs' and 'longshots.'