Winning on the road for SEC basketball teams is more difficult this season than ever. There are too many teams capable of pulling off underdog wins. With all SEC teams having played at least 10 conference games, mid-February is crunch time.
The most dangerous home team dogs are the ones on the NCAA Tournament bubble like the Texas Longhorns. Other SEC teams trying to strengthen their potential Big Dance seeding are the Mississippi State Bulldogs, Vanderbilt Commodores, Kentucky Wildcats, and the Texas A&M Aggies.
Three of Tuesday night's road teams are favored to win, with only one of three; Auburn projected to have an easy time taking down Vandy in Nashville.
SEC Basketball Tuesday Night Predictions
- Florida Gators (20-3 and 7-3 in SEC play) at Mississippi State Bulldogs (17-6 and 5-5) - 6:00 PM CST on ESPN2
ESPN Analytics gives the Gators only a 55.2% probability of winning. Warren Nolan's computer model has Florida slipping by the Bulldogs 74-72. The Gators might be a tad flat after their big upset victory at Auburn, but my prediction is the Gators are five or six points better than the Bulldogs in Starkville.
- Auburn Tigers (21-2 and 9-1) at Vanderbilt Commodores (17-6 and 5-5) - 6:00 PM CST on SECN
The Commodores are not a current NCAA bubble team and will not drop that far from a loss to Auburn. That's good for the Dores because the Tigers will not be looking ahead to Alabama. ESPN's calculation is an 82.9% probability of an Auburn win. Warren Nolan has the Tigers winning by 13. My not-computer-aided prediction is 90%+ probability of the Tigers winning by 12 or more points.
- Tennessee Vols (20-4 and 7-4) at Kentucky Wildcats (16-7 and 5-5) - 6:00 PM CST on ESPN
This old rivalry has the makings of a great game. When the Vols are shooting well, they are tough to beat. The Wildcats have lost four of their last six games, including two at Rupp Arena. ESPN gives the Vols a 53.7% probability of winning. Warren Nolan has the Vols winning by two points. I'm going with a 'backs against a wall' Wildcats' home win not because they are the better team but because they need the win more than Tennessee. It will be a nail-biter in Rupp.
- Georgia Bulldogs (16-8 and 4-7) at Texas A&M Aggies (18-5 and 7-3) - 8:00 PM CST on SECN
ESPN gives the Aggies a 77.6% probability. Nolan has A&M winning by 13 points. The Aggies are better than the Dawgs in multiple ways and my prediction is a 90+% probability of a double-digit win for the home team.
- Alabama Crimson Tide (20-3 and 9-1) at Texas Longhorns (15-9 and 4-7) - 8:00 PM CST on ESPN
Texas needs a win to move it above the NCAA Tournament bubble. Jerry Palm has the Horns as his last team in as an 11-seed. If the Alabama Crimson Tide lets up for any significant minutes in the game, Texas, though somewhat short-handed could pull off an upset. ESPN gives Alabama a 54% probability of winning. Nolan has the Crimson Tide winning by nine points. In the hardest call of Tuesday night, I'll go with the Crimson Tide by six. I will not be surprised if a focused Alabama team wins by a dozen.