Charles Bediako made Alabama Basketball better in five games. Without him, Nate Oats' roster has an obvious big man deficit. But statistically, Bediako's contribution was modest. Based on John Hollinger's Game Score Productivity scale, Bediako was only an average player, rather than a game-changer.
A quick look at computer model predictions shows no changes in the outcomes of future Alabama basketball games. Alabama can produce a strong finish to the regular season and gain a double-bye in the SEC Tournament.
Though only a couple of Alabama's eight-game finish can be considered near-locks, a strong finish could be anywhere from 5-3 to 7-1. The one being Tennessee in Knoxville. According to ESPN Analytics and Bart Torvik, the next biggest threat for a Crimson Tide loss will be against the Georgia Bulldogs in Athens. Arkansas in Tuscaloosa will be another challenge. ESPN gives Alabama a 68% chance to beat the Hogs; Torvik gives Alabama a 70% chance to beat the Hogs. According to Torvik's model, Auburn in Tuscaloosa will be only slightly easier at 73%. ESPN's projection of 63% for Alabama at LSU seems to overvalue the Bengal Tigers. But, excluding Kevin Paugh's KPI, computer models have found more strength in LSU than its record suggests. The Bengal Tigers have lost eight of their last 10 games.
Alabama Basketball Regular Season Prediction
This prediction is subjective, somewhere on the scale of informed opinion to a guess. Alabama is currently tied for fifth in the SEC, with a 6-4 conference record. I am inclined to predict that if Alabama loses no more players to injury for any games, the Crimson Tide will finish the SEC regular season at 13-5. My prediction backs off that inclination a bit and is that Alabama will finish 12-6. My guess is 12-6 would mean an SEC Tournament 2-seed.
Without a Keitenn Bristow return, Alabama cannot afford to lose any of its top eight players in six of the remaining eight games. Even with a Bristow return, Alabama's bench will be thin of productive players. Bad injury luck could torpedo the Crimson Tide's chances for a strong finish.