Theoretically every week of the Playoff ranking cycle is tabula rasa for the Selection Committee. Where Alabama and other teams were ranked last week no longer matters. Each week's ranking cycle teams begins with blank slates.
Realistically, human brains don't work that way, so there has to be carryover no matter how much the committee tries to ignore it.
The college football world exploded last week when the Alabama Crimson Tide was ranked No. 5. Then the Tide went into that Cajun Coliseum called Death Valley and slapped Lane Kiffin in the face, while physically whipping his LSU team in a 31-13 win. If that's not a resume booster, nothing is.
Logically, Alabama should move up in the rankings on Tuesday night. NBC's Nicole Auerbach and ESPN's Heather Dinich predict the Crimson Tide will move up to No. 3. USA Today's Matthew Glenesk also predicts the Tide will be ranked No. 3. College Football News' Pete Futiak predicts the Tide will move up to No. 4.
Other experts/pundits disagree. The Sporting News' Bill Bender predicts Alabama will drop to No. 6. ESPN's group of 10 weekly pickers, which includes Bill Connelly and Mark Schlabach but not Dinich, predicts Alabama's ranking will drop to No. 6 to No. 8, with only three No. 6 picks and seven No. 8 picks.
The Alabama vs. Tennessee Debate
For Bama disdainers or haters (the latter group including all Tennessee fans), the hill they'll die on is the Vols deserving a higher ranking than Alabama because of the head-to-head result in Knoxville. Last week that wasn't a factor because the two teams were in different ranking pods. The Vols' win over Kentucky could move them into the same pod as Alabama. If so, Tennessee might be ranked one spot higher than Alabama. Of course, head-to-head is a major data point, but there are many others.
According to the ESPN FPI, Alabama has college football's No. 1 SOS. Jeff Sagarin's model agrees. Per the FPI, Tennessee's SOS is No. 23. That SOS isn't shabby, like Utah at No. 69 or Texas Tech at No. 71, but No. 23 isn't close to No. 1.
My best guess prediction is that the Vols move up to No. 10 or possibly No. 9. Miami will drop, possibly as low as No. 5 or No. 6. I think the Crimson Tide will move up to No. 4, but No. 3 wouldn't be a shock. Again, the Vols and the Tide should not be in the same pod. Alabama should be rewarded for the road win over LSU.
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