Week 4 of college football is an off week for SEC football teams. Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, and Texas A&M have bye weeks. The 12 other SEC football teams play in 10 games, with only two of the games being SEC vs. SEC matchups.
Five of the 10 games have SEC teams hosting cupcake teams. The worst of the cupcake opponents is Georgia State, ranked by Bill Connelly's SP+ Top 766, at No. 153. FanDuel has the Commodores at -27.5. Vanderbilt will win easily in Nashville
Sam Houston State, ranked slightly higher than Georgia State at No. 150, is playing Texas in Austin. FanDuel's spread favors Texas by 41.5 points. The Texas offense may only need a field goal to ice the game. Instead of being booed by Texas fans, Arch Manning will appear to have regained his anticipated potential as the Longhorns romp.
LSU will find its offense again, with Grant Nussmeier looking like the average quarterback he was against Florida. The Bengal Tigers are favored to beat Southeast Louisiana, but FanDuel has not published a point spread for the game. Tennessee will damage its Strength of Schedule for the second time this season, hosting No. 120 UAB. The Vols are favored by 39.5 points.
Mississippi State hosts Northern Illinois. The Bulldogs are favored by 21.5 points. The Huskies are the best of Saturday's five cupcakes, ranked No. 111. Cowbell-ringing fans in Starkville will enjoy a one-sided game.
Ole Miss hosts Tulane and is a 12.5-point favorite. With or without Austin Simmons, I predict the Rebels will win. Without Simmons, a leaky Ole Miss defense will not be enough for the Rebels to cover the spread.
Arkansas is a 7.5-point road favorite at Memphis. Hogs' QB Taylen Green is a dynamic player. Though closely ranked by multiple computer rankings, the Tigers are unproven after a light schedule. My prediction is that Arkansas wins because the improved Memphis defense is not quite stiff enough.
Missouri is a 12.5-point home favorite against South Carolina. The Gamecocks will fight hard, but without LaNorris Sellers, the South Carolina offense will struggle to keep up. I predict the Tigers will cover in the win. Sellers' availability, though unlikely, is being categorized as questionable.
Florida at Miami might be Billy Napier's last stand. The Gators have talent, but not enough at key positions. DJ Lagway will not suddenly become the QB Florida fans have hoped for since August 2024. I predict Miami will win and easily cover the 7.5-point spread.
Top SEC Football Week 4 Prediction
The Oklahoma Sooners are favored by 6.5 points, hosting Auburn in Norman. My prediction is that OU will win by at least two touchdowns. Nothing Auburn tries on offense will surprise Oklahoma. And John Mateer is a much better quarterback than Jackson Arnold.
Note: All rankings provided by Bill Connelly. A more important note is my advice to not make any wagers based on these predictions.