Let's start with a warning to Auburn, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Florida, Missouri, Arkansas, and Kentucky fans. Fans of those SEC teams will not like what follows. Even worse, Vanderbilt and Mississippi State fans will be irate. Alabama football fans will have a far different response.
Using the FPI, ESPN calculated the percentage chances for each SEC team to win the SEC Championship. Auburn led the group of seven teams with a less than 2.8% chance to become the SEC Champion. The Tigers' chance is 1.8%. For Oklahoma, the number is 1.2%; 1% for Florida; 0,6% for Missouri; 0.5% for Arkansas, and 0.1% for Kentucky.
The probability of an SEC Championship was equal for the Vanderbilt Commodores and the Mississippi State Bulldogs was nada, 0%.
Alabama Football one of three real SEC Championship contenders
According to ESPN's computer model, the best chance for an SEC Championship belongs to the Texas Longhorns at 34.1%. The Georgia Bulldogs are next at 26.9%. The Alabama Crimson Tide has the third-best chance at 17.2%.
Above Auburn but still projected as SEC also-rans are the Texas A&M Aggies at 4.3%, the Tennessee Vols at 4.2%, the LSU Bengal Tigers at 3.5%, and the Ole Miss Rebels at 2.8%.
Impressive for the Longhorns, the Georgia Bulldogs, and the Alabama Crimson Tide is that they are also projected in the top 10 throughout the FBS for Strength of Schedule. The Texas schedule is No. 4 nationally. Georgia is projected at No. 8, and Alabama Football is No. 10.
Missouri's fans have the added indignity of the Tigers having the easiest schedule among SEC teams, while Missouri is projected to finish No. 12 in the SEC standings.
As the 2025 college football season plays out, teams will prove computer models wrong. But for the Auburn Tigers and the eight teams below them in the FPI projections, the gap is too great for 'proving wrong' to put them into Playoff contention, much less SEC Championship contention.