Projections of an 8.5 wins over-under for Alabama Football are driven by probabilities the Crimson Tide will lose to three or four of Georgia, LSU, Texas A&M, and Tennessee.
Kalen DeBoer and the Alabama football team have much to prove in the 2026 season. Failing to score a touchdown, while getting pushed around in the Rose Bowl, will be a memory impossible to erase. That the team that caused such indignity to befall the Crimson Tide became the National Champion is no excuse.
Alabama must be better in 2026. In Tuscaloosa, Kalen DeBoer has no past laurel to buttress his reputation. His impressive record against ranked teams means next to nothing because for Alabama, the only measure that counts is championships.
No one is predicting a 2026 National Championship for the Crimson Tide. What is demanded is that Alabama performs as a legitimate national championship contender. The threshold the '26 Tide must cross is two Playoff wins.
Alabama Football and three weeks in October
The regular season will be far from over in October, but three weeks in the month will indicate the Crimson Tide's Playoff chances. If Alabama wins two of Georgia, at Tennessee, and Texas A&M, a loss in Baton Rouge in November won't derail Playoff chances.
If all the Crimson Tide's pieces have come together by Oct. 10, Alabama can win the three October games and beat LSU in Red Stick. Winning two of the games is the minimum. The most probable wins are at Tennessee and Texas A&M in Tuscaloosa. Nick Saban lost his last game in Knoxville, and Kalen DeBoer lost his first.
Neyland provides a challenge to visiting teams, but the Vols lost at home to Vanderbilt last season. That fourth loss for the 2025 season was followed by a fifth against Illinois in the Music City Bowl. New DC Jim Knowles should make Tennessee better in 2026, but purported offensive wizard Josh Heupel will have a major disadvantage against the Crimson Tide. Kalen DeBoer and Ryan Grubb will have the far better quarterback. Even if all else is close to equal between the two teams, the better quarterback should win.
The Texas A&M Aggies will be a greater challenge than Tennessee. The two rosters might be close to equal in talent. Saban Field and the Bryant-Denny crowd should be enough to boost the Crimson Tide to a win.
There is no logic to suggest that Alabama will lose to Kentucky, South Carolina, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, and Auburn. Maybe one or two of the games will be close. Those five, plus three non-conference wins and success over the Vols and the Aggies, would put a 10-2 Crimson Tide on track for a strong Playoff run. Beating Georgia or LSU would be sweet, cake icing, but not essential.
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