Where will the CFB Playoff Selection Committee rank the Alabama Crimson Tide? Will the committee's first rankings show that talk about schedule strength has turned into action? Will the first rankings indicate how many SEC teams will make the final Playoff field?
These questions and more won't be fully answered on Tuesday night. At best, fans can hope for indicators, though playoff ranking history shows the committee often changes direction over the six-week ranking period.
College football's new parity makes the committee's job harder than ever before. It will be even harder next year, when they try to choose the No. 13 through No. 24 slots.
The committee considers considerable data. How they use the data is never clearly defined.
Alabama and CFB Playoff Rankings - Week 1
Even the best computer models are little help in predicting how the committee will rank teams. Since the rankings are human decisions, let's review one individual's recent prediction of Tuesday night's rankings. College Football News' Pete Futiak predicts the Crimson Tide will be ranked No. 11. He has six SEC teams in the top12: Georgia (No. 3), Kentucky (No. 6), Texas (No. 9), Tennessee (No. 10), Alabama (No. 11), and Ole Miss (No. 12). By Selection Sunday, the SEC's ceiling is likely four teams.
Futiak predicts the committee will rank UCLA No. 4, ignoring the Bruins' No. 64 SOS and rewarding what should be an 8-0 record after a win over Nevada. Futiak predicts Cincinnati will knock off Utah this week, knocking them from the unbeatens. He still believes the committee will honor the Utes' 7-0 start and mostly ignore their SOS of No. 88. His prediction is Utah at No. 15.
The first two or three rankings probably should not focus too much on SOS. Compared to Alabama's No. 7 SOS, Miami's SOS is No. 60. There's little doubt that the Canes will be ranked No. 1 on Tuesday, after beating North Carolina.
Week 9 games are not expected to help Alabama's ranking on Tuesday. According to ESPN's FPI model, the top 11 teams in Futiak's prediction either don't play or have a greater than 82% probability of winning.
For Alabama, No. 11 would be a precarious spot, indicating that a potential 9-3 Crimson Tide wouldn't make the final Playoff field. Unless the Selection Committee uses schedule strength as a major selection determinant.
Note: SOS rankings provided by ESPN's FPI
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