Alabama Crimson Tide fans searching for optimism about an upset of Michigan should ignore stats for two reasons. One reason is that Michigan is much better than Alabama defensively and in defensive rebounding. A glimpse of only a few stats provides proof.
Among all Division One teams, the Wolverines are No. 3 in field-goal percentage defense (38.7%). Alabama is No. 99 at 43%. Michigan averages 29 defensive rebounds per game, which is No. 6 nationally. The Wolverines are No. 3 in shot-blocking and have more frontcourt size than Alabama.
Ken Pomeroy's opponent-adjusted stats have Michigan as the nation's No. 2 defense. Alabama is ranked No. 60. While Alabama has an outstanding No. 3-rated Offensive Efficiency, the Wolverines are close behind at No. 6.
No amount of drilling down on stats will indicate an Alabama win, which is why every credible computer model projects a Michigan win.
Forget the stats. There is a chance that Alabama found a new defensive gear swarming around and over Texas Tech. A finally healthy Taylor Bol Bowen is one reason the Tide's defense may be more formidable than season stats indicate. Another reason is that the Tide is better defensively without Aden Holloway on the court. Alabama's defensive intensity against Texas Tech was far better than the Tide's norm for the season.
Alabama is not better offensively without Holloway, but if Latrell Wrightsell and Houston Mallette can stay hot, as they were against the Red Raiders, Holloway's absence may have minimal impact.
It is expected that Dusty May will defend Labaron Philon with 6'9" Yaxel Lendeborg. Philon will be giving up a good five inches, and Lendeborg can press the Tide star. If Labaron gets past Lendeborg, Michigan has two rim protectors in Aday Mara and Morez Johson Jr. Johnson is 6'9" and 255 lbs.; Mara is 7'3" and 240lbs. Philon will draw much attention from Michigan, which could create needed space for Alabama perimeter shooters. No team does drive to the paint and kick basketball better than the Crimson Tide.
Alabama Crimson Tide Preparation
A guess is Nate Oats has practiced his team with Taylor Bol Bowen guarding Philon. If so, Philon will be prepared for Lendeborg's size. Alabama fans can hope Michigan's star guarding Philon will produce a serious foul problem for the Wolverines.
Alabama thrives by offensive efficiency, in which making threes is just one component. Still, against the Wolverines, Alabama will need one of its best three-point shooting games of the season.
From a stats-be-damned perspective, Alabama beating Michigan seems possible. A win would likely require the Crimson Tide's best game of the season.
Note: Player information provided by Sports Reference