Now that the 2024 college football season has reached November, football is about to get easier for the Alabama Crimson Tide. Some in the sports-pundit class may scoff at such a statement. How can trips to Baton Rouge and Norman provide anything less than a serious challenge to Alabama Football? The Mercer game is a cupcake win, but given the Tide's squeaker win last Fall in Auburn, some will add that an Iron Bowl win is never guaranteed.
The fact remains that Alabama should go 4-0 in November for one main reason. It will be the better team in every game. Auburn is a train wreck. Mercer will be totally out-classed. The Sooners' offense is anemic. The Bengal Tigers are a serious threat, but one-dimensional on offense and flawed on defense.
The foundation for the easier November path lacks a locked-in proven claim. It is the same claim I made in August and September. That claim was a new Crimson Tide roster, heavily filled with inexperienced and less-experienced players learning new systems, would take time to develop. It was the old Nick Saban 'work-in-progress' description. I projected that in November, the Alabama Crimson Tide would be a much-improved team. Saturday night in Tiger Stadium will be the test.
For the Crimson Tide to best the Bengal Tigers, it just must not beat itself. The too-frequent inconsistencies in Alabama's losses and a couple of its wins must be contained. Progress in doing so will result in a 10-2 Alabama Crimson Tide being a solid CFB Playoff contender.
Alabama Crimson Tide and Top Defenses
There are data points to back up my claim. We can look at analysis provided by Brian Fremeau on offensive and defensive Points Per Drive (OPD and DPD) and Net Points Per Drive (NPD). Frenau's calculation includes only FBS vs. FBS games and excludes garbage time and overtime possessions.
In DPD Alabama has played five of the top 27 teams in the FBS. Tennessee is No. 1 in DPD with an opponent average of .96 points per drive. Georgia, South Carolina, Missouri, and Wisconsin range from 1.61 - 1.72 opponent points per drive. LSU is ranked No. 63 among FBS teams for the DPD stat at 2.08 points. Oklahoma (No. 15) and Auburn (No. 52) are better at DPD than the Bengal Tigers in DPD at 1.50 points for the Sooners and 2.00 points for Auburn. Alabama is No. 13 for DPD at 1.48 points.
More telling is NPD. The Alabama Crimson Tide is No. 15 at 1.42 points. LSU is No. 35 at .65 points. Oklahoma is No. 71 at (minus) -.02 points and Auburn is No. 81 at -.24 points. The data is not adjusted for the Strength of Schedule (SOS), but Alabama would have an edge over LSU if it were. According to ESPN, the Crimson Tide has played college football's No. 5 SOS. LSU is at No. 8.
This far into the college football season, numbers don't lie. They do not 100% predict the outcomes of games, but they are strong indicators. In November, the Alabama Crimson Tide should run the table.