On Tuesday night, Alabama Basketball should beat Mississippi State, even with the game in Starkville. There was a stronger 'should' opportunity on Saturday in Tuscaloosa, but the Crimson Tide lost to Texas.
There are almost no 'must-wins' in mid -January, but Alabama needs to avoid a third straight loss. The Bulldogs need a bounce-back win after being embarrassed in Lexington on Saturday, losing to the Kentucky Wildcats 92-68.
Guard Josh Hubbard leads Mississippi State and the SEC in scoring at 22.8 points per game. Alabama has two of the top five scorers among SEC players. Labaron Philon is No. 3 with an average of 21.3 points; Aden Holloway is No. 5 at 18.6 points. Alabama's problem has not been scoring. The biggest problems have been team defense and rebounding. Despite Labaron Philon and Houston Mallette combining to miss all nine of their threes against Texas, Alabama's 88 points should have been enough for a win. But the Longhorns gained an advantage in rebounds, blocks, and fast-break points, which prevented an Alabama comeback.
After the game, Nate Oats admitted the Crimson Tide's defensive performance against Texas would not produce wins against top teams. It was an understatement. Three respected computer models show that Alabama's defensive performance has not been adequate this season. In Defensive Ratings, Evan Miya has the Crimson Tide as No. 53 among all Division 1 teams. Bart Torvik's model has Alabama at No. 75, consistent with Ken Pomeroy's defensive ranking of No. 77.
Nate Oats' team defense performances at Alabama have been rather feast or famine. In the 2020-21 and 2022-23 seasons, Alabama's postseason defensive ranking was an outstanding No. 3 among all Division 1 teams. Oddly, going back to Oats' first season, Alabama has ranked poorly every other season: No. 114 in 2019-20, No. 92 in 2021-22, No. 111 in 2023-24, and now mid-70s per KPom and Torvik.
Defensively, Alabama Basketball needs much improvement
There is adequate time for improvement, but the Crimson Tide has a long way to go to match last season's No. 28 Defensive Rating.
A long-held presumption has been that to win a National Championship, a team must have at worst a top 40 defensive rating. Overwhelmingly, for a quarter of a century, NCAA Tournament winners have had both a top-30 offensive rating and a top-30 defensive rating. Alabama reaching a Final Four with a No. 111 defensive ranking was an outlier in how important defensive performance is to postseason success.
The Crimson Tide needs a defensive turnaround and it needs to start in Starkville.