NCAA Tournament Selection Sunday is two months away. In the NCAA NET rankings after games on Jan.14, 13 SEC basketball teams were ranked in the top 50. Auburn at No. 1 was followed by Tennessee (No. 4), Florida (No. 7), and Alabama (No. 9) in the top 10.
College basketball pundits describe the SEC as the best, top-to-bottom conference in the nation, and maybe the best, ever. Adam Zielonka writing for Deadspin, predicted in the middle of March, "Talking heads will be comparing the resumes of the 12th-best basketball team in the SEC against No. 3 or 4 in the Big East.
And it will be fully justified."
Some other pundits have been as expansive about the NCAA Tournament chances of SEC basketball teams, with a prediction of 13 SEC teams making it to the Big Dance. Even 12 SEC teams would be record-setting. The Big East got 11 teams into the field in the 2011 season. That's a tough record to beat. In 2011 among the Big East's Big Dance teams, Marquette had the worst record at 20-14. Buzz Williams' team did pretty well in the tournament, beating Xavier and Syracuse, before losing to North Carolina.
Before the SEC's Tuesday night games, Joe Lunardi projected 11 SEC teams in the Big Dance. Lunardi's projection had half of the 1,2, and 3 seeds going to SEC basketball teams.
After the Alabama Crimson Tide lost to Ole Miss, Lunardi moved Nate Oats' team from a 1-seed to a 2-seed. His two top overall seeds were Auburn and Tennessee.
One loss does little to damage the resumes of college basketball teams. A week ago, Tennessee lost to Florida by 30 points. On Tuesday night Florida and Alabama lost at home. The losses had minimal impact on the NET ranking of the three teams.
The SEC will have an impressive number of teams chosen on Selection Sunday, but the number will probably not be record-setting. Lunardi has three SEC teams in his eight, First Four Out and Next Four Out groupings. They are Arkansas, Vanderbilt, and Texas. It is hard to imagine any of them finishing the regular season with less than 13 losses. Could an 18-13 Texas team with an SEC record of 7-11 make the tournament field? The Longhorns have zero Quad 1 wins and five Quad 1 losses. For Texas, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, and possibly also Missouri, Oklahoma, and Georgia gaining at least a few Quad 1 wins could decide their NCAA Tournament chances.
It is too soon to jump to Bracket conclusions, but based on early SEC play, LSU and Arkansas do not appear to be NCAA Tournament-quality teams. That assessment does not suggest the SEC will have 14 NCAA Tournament teams. A too-early guess is 11 teams, not less than 10, and a longshot 12.