Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, but that shouldn't excuse a somewhat ho-hum response to Week 1 for SEC football teams. There are a couple of headlining games: the Clemson Tigers taking on LSU in Baton Rouge, and a tussle in Nashville between Ole Miss and Louisville.
SEC teams are favored to win every game, and given the opponents, the conference should start the season 16-0. Six of the opponents are FCS teams, and two each are from the ACC and American conferences. The other six opponents are teams from the Big 12, new Pac-12, MAC, Sun Belt, Mountain West, and CUSA.
Using score predictions from Kenneth Massey's model, the 16 SEC teams will score 707 points and hold opponents to 177 points. Massey projects three games as huge blowouts: Georgia beating Tennessee State, 71-0; Missouri beating Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 67-0; and Tennessee beating the Furman Paladins, 54-4. Not far behind in a blowout category are: Arkansas 49-6 over North Alabama; Texas A&M 48-5 over Missouri State; South Carolina 44-6 over Kent State; Oklahoma 44-3 over UTEP; and Mississippi State 45-9 over Louisiana-Monroe.
The tightest predicted winning margins for SEC teams are Ole Miss beating Louisville 29-24 and Auburn beating Baylor 30-23. Brian Fremeau's game predictions are close to Massey's. Fremeau has a bigger margin for Ole Miss, with the Rebels winning 31-22.
Alabama will win either 35-12 or 37-13
Based on Massey's predictions, SEC defenses will hold opponents to an average of 11 points per game. Alabama's opponent, East Carolina, should be a better team than most other Week 1 opponents, but Massey and Fremeau project the Crimson Tide defense will allow only 12 points and 13 points, respectively. Massey has the Alabama Crimson Tide scoring 35 points, and Fremeau has Alabama scoring 37 points.
Along with a not-too-difficult Alabama win, many Crimson Tide fans care more about rushing yards than about points. Winning ugly would not be a disaster for Alabama. Failing to effectively and consistently run the football would be a danger sign for future games.
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