As John Mitchell recently explained, the 2025 Alabama Football season will define Kalen DeBoer. It will, but another four-loss season would not cost DeBoer his job. The punditry world of college football often paints a more dire outcome. That outcome is, if the Alabama Crimson Tide fails to reach the CFB Playoffs again, DeBoer will have the hottest of hot seats going into the 2026 season.
No Alabama Football Hot Seat
It is always fun to consider hot seats. For fans and those of us who write about a team, it is enjoyable to point out the precarious positions of opposing coaches. The fun sometimes clouds financial realities. Unlike Texas A&M, some SEC programs cannot afford buyouts in the tens of millions. Though the buyout numbers are vastly different, no second-season SEC head coach (DeBoer, Jeff Lebby, and Mike Elko) will be fired for poor on-field performance after two seasons. Even if Greg Byrne wanted to eject DeBoer, an approximately $60M buyout would stop him. Lebby's buyout is reportedly $12M, which Mississippi State could handle, but four head coaches over five years would be a risky revolving door. Jimbo Fisher exited a depleted program, and Elko's eight wins in his first season were a strong performance.
Claims that Mark Stoops is in a hot seat in Lexington are debatable. The Wildcats have slumped since a 10-win season in 2021. But Stoops has the highest winning percentage of any Kentucky coach for 60-plus seasons. And he reportedly has a $37M buyout.
Another sketchy situation is Clark Lea and Vanderbilt. Lea's 7-6 record last season should easily propel him into the 2026 season. However, his buyout is only a smallish burden at about $14M and the average shelf-life for Vandy coaches is the shortest in the SEC. Lea's fifth Vandy season should not be his last but his 16-33 career record badly needs another winning season.
Along with DeBoer, Lebby and Elko, five more SEC coaches are secure for the 2026 season. As many as four or five of them are secure beyond 2026, led by Kirby Smart. The others are Steve Sarkisian, Lane Kiffin, Shane Beamer and Eli Drinkwitz.
2025 SEC Football Hot Seats
Many pundits have claimed that Brian Kelly will not make it to 2026 if LSU fails to make the Playoffs again. That might be accurate, but a buyout around $62M should delay the Bengal Tigers from parting ways with Kelly.
Projecting Kelly to last at least to 2026 leaves five SEC Football Hot Seats for the 2025 season. The most vulnerable are likely to be Sam Pittman, Brent Venables, and Hugh Freeze. Pittman's buyout is estimated as a paltry $9M. Auburn can cut Freeze loose for about $20M. Venables is somewhat protected by a reported $35M buyout, but that may not be protection enough.
Billy Napier is 19-19 over three seasons in Gainesville. Another has another brutal schedule in 2025 and at least Napier must post a winning record. His buyout is reported to be about $26M.
It is admittedly a stretch, but the fifth SEC coach at risk is Josh Heupel. Heupel should be secure with a four-season 37-15 record at Tennessee. The Vols have arguably the SEC's easiest 2025 schedule. Heupel and the Vols should survive the Nico Iamaleava debacle. But if the Vols have inconsistent quarterback play and slump to a losing record (against a cushy schedule), Heupel's chicken feed buyout of $6M could possibly cause him to be cut loose.
Note: Most buyouts in this post are reported estimates from multiple sources. Coaching records were provided by Sports Reference.