When, not if, the Alabama Crimson Tide beats Mississippi State on Wednesday night, the going will get quickly tougher. At Tennessee and at Georgia, plus a Tuscaloosa IBOB, is a demanding closing slate.
Another SEC basketball (not bold) prediction: Florida will win the SEC regular season title and be the 1-seed in the SEC Tournament (SECT). Alabama could finish as high as the SECT 2-seed. More importantly, is the Crimson Tide gaining an SECT double bye.
Getting to skip the first two rounds of the SECT is always valuable. Due to Alabama's propensity for injuries and prolonged recoveries, the Crimson Tide needs the double bye more than other teams.
With the help of game projections by Bart Torvik and the clever site bball.notnothing.net, every possible scenario can be calculated, including tie-breakers.
Alabama Crimson Tide SEC Tournament Seeding Scenarios
Using Torvik's predictions of favorites, with no upsets, is the base comparison. For the Crimson Tide, 'all favorites win' means Alabama beats Mississippi State, Georgia, and Auburn, and loses to Tennessee. In that scenario, Alabama finishes the SEC regular season at 13-5 and becomes the SECT 4-seed. Tennessee would be the 2-seed, and Arkansas would be the 3-seed, based on round-robin tiebreakers.
If Alabama beat Tennessee (plus Mississippi State, Georgia, and Auburn), the Crimson Tide would become the SECT 2-seed. Beat MSU, the Vols, and Auburn, but lose to Georgia, Alabama would still become the 2-seed. If the Crimson Tide beats the two sets of Bulldogs and the Vols, but loses to Auburn, Alabama would also be the SECT 2-seed.
Should Alabama only beat Mississippi State and Auburn, the Crimson Tide would become the SECT 5-seed. The 'Oh No' scenario for the Alabama Crimson Tide would be losing to the Vols, Georgia, and Auburn. That three-game slide would drop the Crimson Tide to the SECT 6-seed. It would likely drop Alabama to a projected NCAA Tournament 6-seed. An SECT win would be needed to hold on to a 6-seed on Selection Sunday, and two SECT wins to sneak into the Big Dance as a 5-seed. Even with three losses to close the regular season, three SECT wins (making, but not winning the SEC Championship Game) would likely make the Crimson Tide a Big Dance 4-seed.