Headed into the season, Jalen Milroe was a top quarterback prospect and projected to be a top 10 NFL Draft pick. Through the season’s first four games, Milroe lived up to the hype. 10 touchdowns, one interception, and 954 yards through the air to go along with eight touchdowns on the ground.
Since those first four games, Milroe’s stock has substantially dropped. He’s only had five touchdowns to 9 interceptions and only one game with 300+ passing yards. Per CBS Sports and Pro Football Network, Milroe has dropped out of the conversation for being a first-round pick, and according to NFL Spin Zone, Milroe could be taken 26th by the Pittsburgh Steelers to ride the bench behind Russell Wilson.
Even Alabama alumni like Damian Harris have changed their tune on Milroe. Harris made the point on CBS Sports HQ that Milroe should return to college.
"I think Jalen Milroe should ABSOLUTELY return to college."@DHx34 does not believe the Alabama QB is ready to make the jump to the next level, but should he return to the Crimson Tide? pic.twitter.com/QoZKuXhk5l
— CBS Sports College Football 🏈 (@CBSSportsCFB) November 30, 2024
Aside from the opinions on Milroe’s draft stock, there is a legitimate stat-based argument to be made that Milroe isn’t a first-round draft pick. Looking at Milroe’s numbers this season versus the numbers posted by last year’s first-round draft picks, Milroe is somewhat lacking.
Jalen Milroe in 2024
Passing: 189-287, 65.9% completion percentage, 2,652 yards, 15 touchdowns and 10 interceptions
Rushing: 152 carries, 719 yards, 20 touchdowns
Caleb Williams in 2023
266-388, 68.6% completion percentage, 3,633 yards, 30 touchdowns and 5 interceptions
Jayeden Daniels in 2023
235-327, 72% completion percentage, 3,812 yards, 40 touchdowns and 4 interceptions
Drake Maye in 2023
269-425, 653% completion percentage, 3,608 yards, 24 touchdowns and 9 interceptions
Michael Penix Jr. in 2023
363-555, 65% completion percentage, 4,903 yards, 36 touchdowns and 11 interceptions
J.J. McCarthy in 2023
240-332, 72% completion percentage, 2,991 yards, 22 touchdowns and 4 interceptions
Bo Nix in 2023
364-470, 77% completion percentage, 4,508 yards, 45 touchdowns and 3 interceptions
Looking at the numbers, Milroe falls short of every player passing who came off the board in the first round last year. Granted, none of those guys have Milroe’s legs.
According to Mel Kipper Jr. on the First Draft Podcast earlier this year, Milroe’s best comp may be Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, but Milroe’s numbers still don’t stack up to Lamar’s senior year.
Lamar Jackson in 2017
Passing: 254-430, 59% completion percentage, 3,660 yards, 27 touchdowns and 10 interceptions
Rushing: 232 carries, 1,601 yards and 18 touchdowns
Milroe may have an edge in rushing touchdowns, but he doesn’t have to carry the offense on his shoulders like Jackson did.
Another knock on Milroe’s stats is the lack of clear improvement from 2023 to 2024.
From 2023 to 2024, Milroe has thrown eight fewer touchdown passes, four more interceptions, 182 fewer yards, and his passer rating has fallen from 172.2 to 153.8. The rushing numbers have improved. Milroe has eight more touchdowns this season than last season and 1.3 more yards per carry. But Milroe will be drafted to play quarterback, not running back.
To be fair, Milroe did have a coaching change last year to this year. He had to learn a new offense and lost his best weapons from the 2023 season. Milroe’s coaching change was supposed to make him better, though.
Michael Penix Jr., who was taken in the first round last year, was a product of Kalen DeBoer’s Washington team. Penix was one of the best passers in the league each year under DeBoer, and Milroe hasn’t been able to replicate that success.
Looking at the stats, it’s clear that Milroe should stay in college, but the real question is whether or not he should stay at Alabama. In the day and age of the transfer portal, it’s not uncommon to see guys leave for developmental opportunities, and there are, in theory, programs that could help Milroe improve.
Ryan Day and Chip Kelly at Ohio State have a bonified track record of developing quarterbacks into NFL products, Lincoln Riley at USC helped put to rest a lot of the questions about former Alabama dual-threat Jalen Hurts, and Dan Lanning did great things with Bo Nix at Oregon after he left Auburn.
All of those programs would have the NIL money to tempt Milroe, and getting away from the hardnose defenses of the SEC could help improve his numbers.
Jalen Milroe is going to need to take the next step before he is NFL-ready and Alabama is going to need to show him that they are going to be able to develop him for him to stay. One more year may just be the answer.