ESPN's FPI computer model may not love Alabama, but it rates the Crimson Tide more highly than most ESPN experts. ESPN tasked 12 of its 'experts' with a final preseason prediction of the 2026-27 CFB Playoff field. Only four of the 12 projected the Crimson Tide as a playoff team.
The FPI model projects Alabama with the ninth-highest probability (42.2%) of making the Playoff. That is third among SEC teams, with Texas at 69.3& and Georgia at 64.9%. Five more SEC teams have probabilities of 20.8% or higher: LSU (40.5%), Texas A&M (29.2%), Ole Miss (22.8%), and Tennessee (20.8%).
The four ESPN experts projecting the Crimson Tide as a Playoff team are: Kyle Bonagura (9-seed), Adam Rittenberg (10-seed), Mark Schlaback (11-seed), and Paolo Uggetti (11-seed). Half of the 12 have the SEC getting four Playoff teams, with the other half projecting only three SEC teams.
Among SEC teams, only Texas and Georgia made all 12 projections. The highest seed for Texas was No. 1, with its lowest being a 9-seed. Georgia had three 2-seed projections, with its lowest being three projections as a 6-seed.
LSU given more favor than Alabama
Seven of the 12 experts had LSU in their Playoff fields. The Bengal Tigers were slated in the 7-seed to 11-seed range. Texas A&M edged out the Crimson Tide. Like Alabama, only four experts projected the Aggies as a Playoff team, but one of them had A&M as a 5-seed.
Three experts projected Tennessee in the Playoff field, with the Vols' highest seed being a 9-seed. Oklahoma was projected by two experts, with the highest seed being a 9-seed. One expert had Ole Miss as a 9-seed.
What to make of expert opinions? Doubt lingers as much as ever about the Alabama Crimson Tide. At least some of that doubt is assigned to Kalen DeBoer. ESPN experts leaving the Crimson Tide out of their projected Playoff field have ample reason to doubt Alabama based on two of the Tide's last three 2025 games. Preseason doubts don't much matter. But if experts are proven somewhat accurate, Alabama will possibly need to beat Tennessee and Texas A&M to make the Playoff field.
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