Alabama Football will win more than six regular-season football games. The ESPN FPI has Alabama with the sixth-highest probability to win six games at 98.5%. The number should be 99.9%, but let's not quibble.
The Alabama Crimson Tide's win total will not stop at six. A practical assessment, untied to any algorithm, is that eleven wins are more likely than six. My take is Alabama has six games that are 'lock' wins, and only one should be subject to any debate. The dead solid five begin with Florida State. If FSU had any chance for an upset, the Noles' brash quarterback Thomas Castellanos and his big talk slammed that door. Four more dead- solid wins for the Crimson Tide are ULM, Wisconsin, Vanderbilt, and Eastern Illinois. Alabama's second units could easily beat the Warhawks and whatever the nickname is for the FCS program.
An Alabama Football Lock Win Over Old Rival
The sixth 'lock' win will come in the 108th contest between the two teams. Followers of Alabama football history will recognize that program as the Tennessee Volunteers. The reasons why Alabama is a lock to beat Tennessee are simple. The Vols have a serious quarterback weakness, and Tennessee's roster has considerably less talent than Alabama's roster.
Even if one ascribes 'Offensive Guru' and 'Quarterback Whisperer' to Josh Heupel, he is no wizard. The ceiling for the Vols' transfer quarterback Joey Aguilar is too low for any amount of wizardry. The Athletic surveyed coaches and college football staffers to rank the 136 FBS quarterbacks. The results were grouped into seven tiers. Aguilar ranked No. 60 in the fifth tier. Only one projected SEC starter was ranked lower, Kentucky's Zach Calzada.
Alabama's Ty Simpson and Georgia's Gunner Stockton were ranked in the fourth tier, at No. 47 and No. 48, respectively. Due to limited playing experience, Simpson and Stockton are unproven. That is not the case with Aguilar. What he is, is known, and it doesn't reach the standard of a winning SEC quarterback.
Two sources are enough to prove the claim that the Vols' roster is not close to the talent level of the Alabama roster. The annual Blue Chip Ratio, calculated by CBS Sports, has Alabama No. 1 at 89%. The Vols are at 54%. Another source is the SEC Preseason Media Poll. Eleven Alabama football players made the preseason poll. Tennessee gained only three defensive players, one of whom, Jermod McCoy, may not be fully recovered from an ACL injury until October. Even if McCoy is 100% by the Third Saturday in October, Aguilar, with a cast of no great offensive linemen, will have a tough day in Tuscaloosa.