FanDuel has the Alabama Crimson Tide as a 9.5-point favorite over the Tennessee Vols. Other sportsbooks have Alabama as an 8.5-point favorite. A two-score point spread over a team ranked No. 11 in The AP Poll is noteworthy.
Is the Alabama Crimson Tide clearly the better team in the Third Saturday in October game? The answer is yes, and there are multiple sound reasons why.
The 5-1 records for the two teams are not equal. Alabama has beaten three ranked teams. The Vols have zero wins over currently ranked teams. ESPN's metrics rank Tennessee the No. 47 Strength of Schedule (SOS) among FBS teams. The SOS for Alabama is No. 2.
Based on ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), Arkansas is the 14th-best SEC football team and No. 36 among all FBS teams. The Vols were fortunate to beat the Hogs last Saturday in Knoxville. The final score was 34-31, but Arkansas turned the ball over on three of its first four second-half possessions.
Headlines for the game touted Tennessee running back DeShean Biship rushing ofr 146 yards in the win. Less noticed is that the Hogs' Mike Washington Jr. rushed for 131 yards and Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green passed for 256 yards. Arkansas outgained Tennessee in total yards, 496-485.
Statistically, Arkansas has the worst pass defense in the SEC. Tennessee is only slightly better. Based on stats, the Vols rushing defense is middle of the SEC pack. Consider that stat somewhat misleading. The proof being the Tennessee's SOS and that Arkansas's Mike Washington Jr. averaging 6.9 ypc in Neyland Stadium.
Alabama Crimson Tide offense too much for Vols' defense
All for Tennessee discussed Tennessee's defensive problems against the Hogs: "The Vols' third conference game of the season was another struggle for the Vols' defense. Whether it was defending the run in the first half or trying to slow down the passing game ... It seemed like the Razorbacks were able to do virtually anything they wanted offensively throughout the first half ..."
After the Sam Pittman firing, Bobby Petrino made multiple changes in the Hogs' defensive staff. Any on-field improvement has not had time to occur. At home, the Vols should have easily beaten Arkansas. Instead, without the Hog's second-half turnovers, Arkansas would have won the game.
Note: Stats provided by cfbstats.com