Alabama needs to hold serve and win at home on Saturday night against South Carolina. Though a loss would be another bad loss for Kalen DeBoer, the game isn't a must-win for him or his team. Not every Crimson Tide fan will agree.
When defining must-wins, it is normal to exclude new-hire head coaches. Even if their new-gig honeymoon period is short, they are almost locked in to reach season two with their new programs. Contradicting that job security norm, three of the four head coaches listed below are new hires.
Before elaborating on the contradiction, let's begin with a coach who's not a new hire. It is South Carolina's Shane Beamer. Gamecock fans appear to be done with Beamer. Short of a miracle, which will not happen, every game is a must-win for Beamer.
The next two new -hire 'must-win guys are Arkansas' Ryan Silverfield and Auburn's Alex Golesh. Silverfield will not be axed if the Hogs lose to Tulsa, but Arkansas fans will not be forgiving. SEC football programs, even one in dire straits like Arkansas, DO NOT lose to the Tulsas of the college football world. Tulsa is 3-0, but with one of college football's least potent offenses, Brian Fremeau's FEI Ratings have the Golden Hurricane at No. 98.
Golesh's job will not be on shaky ground if Auburn loses to Vanderbilt at home. On top of a possible 0-2 SEC start, a Vandy upset would be three straight wins over Auburn. Aubies will not tolerate Auburn losses to Vandy in Jordan-Hare. If Golesh loses on Saturday, his Auburn honeymoon will crash. Auburn would suddenly be looking at the potential of not even qualifying for the Birmingham Bowl (or any bowl).
Recent estimates of LSU's cost of firing Brian Kelly and Matt McMahon, Lane Kiffin's contract, outgoing and incoming assistant contracts, Will Wade's contract, plus reportedly around $50 million for LSU's football roster, total close to a quarter of a billion dollars. LSU's power brokers didn't dump massive money for LSU to miss the Playoff this season. And the SEC's lawsuit against LSU could increase LSU's costs by millions more. With a loss to Texas A&M, the Bengal Tigers' playoff odds would drop from ESPN's current projection of 27.2% to a much lower percentage.
LSU fans may start pointing the finger of blame at Kiffin. Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry may need a fall guy. Predicting what Landry will do is challenging, but he will no doubt successfully deflect any blame for a spiraling LSU debacle.
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