A fifth straight loss to the Tennessee Vols sticks in the craw of Alabama basketball fans. From a broader perspective, it doesn't much matter. Losing to a good team, even at home, does little damage to a team's NCAA NET Ranking.
Sunday morning's NCAA NET ranked Alabama at No. 22, consistent with current NCAA Tournament projections as a 5-seed. Vandy at No. 13, Florida at No. 16, and Arkansas at No. 20 are the only SEC teams ranked higher than Alabama. The Vols are ranked No. 24.
In the ESPN BPI, Kevin Pauga's KPI, Ken Pomeroy, and Bart Torvik rankings, Alabama is ranked as high as No. 18 (KPI) and as low as No. 22 in the NET. The other three models have the Crimson Tide at No. 19.
Every Alabama Basketball Season Goal
Every goal Alabama had before the season began remains in play. The Crimson Tide sits two games back of SEC leader Texas A&M in the conference loss column. Three teams are one game behind the Aggies, and five more equal Alabama's three league losses. An SEC Tournament 1-seed is possible, as is a higher than 5-seed in the Big Dance.
The Crimson Tide has 12 SEC regular -season games left to play. ESPN Analytics favors Alabama in seven of them. The model has Alabama coming up short at Florida, at Auburn, at Tennessee, and at Georgia, though the Bulldogs are a slight favorite with a 50.8% probability of winning.
Alabama is given a 69.6% probability of beating Texas A&M in Tuscaloosa. The current SEC leader has a No. 41 NET ranking and a No. 46 in the KPI rankings.
With the Crimson Tide's seemingly never-ending injury issues, no game can be called a sure win, but the Tide should be a solid favorite over Missouri on Tuesday, and South Carolina and Mississippi State in Tuscaloosa later in the season.
An argument can be made that not having Aden Holloway and Amari Allen available was the primary reason the Vols beat the Tide. A healthy Alabama roster with its best eight or nine players competing would be a team able to beat any SEC opponent and go deep into the NCAA Tournament. Alabama Crimson Tide fans can keep hoping for the best.