Does the Alabama Crimson Tide have a schedule obstacle to Playoff-worthy status? ESPN's FPI projection gives Alabama college football's No. 15 most difficult schedule. In the opinion of Greg Sankey and many others, Strength of Schedule (SOS) is talked about by the Playoff Selection Committee, but not acted upon.
Perhaps the committee gives credence to Strength of Record, but it appears that what influences Playoff rankings the most are simply wins and losses. That leads to ranking conclusions being subjective based on good wins and bad losses.
Based on reporting by ESPN's Heather Dinich, top college football coaches believe there are no more than 15 teams that "can legitimately compete for the national title." ESPN's FPI model projects 28 teams with a 10% or greater probability of making the Playoff.
Alabama is one of the 28 teams at a solid 41.4%. The only SEC football teams with a higher probability are Texas (70.2%) and Georgia (63.9%).
Contrary to ESPN's computer model, a new subjective assessment questions whether the Crimson Tide can produce enough of "what the committee likes (and doesn't)."
Alabama Crimson Tide and what Selection Committee likes
Heather Dinich contends that, like last season, the Selection Committee will forgive Alabama a bad loss if the Crimson Tide beats Georgia. What Dinich says the committee will not like is "a lack of statement wins" by Alabama. Last season the Crimson Tide racked up four regular-season wins against ranked teams. Dinich questions if that is possible this season. She is not sure Alabama will have enough ranked teams on its schedule. She questions whether Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and Auburn will be ranked late in the season.
The Crimson Tide cannot concern itself with whether an opponent is ranked. Focusing on statement wins could lead Alabama to lose focus on games against 'lesser' teams. No doubt, the Crimson Tide will need at least one statement win to gain a Playoff selection edge over other top SEC teams. Losses in the Georgia, Texas A&M, and LSU games could knock the Tide out of Playoff contention. But beating one of those teams and not losing any other games in which Alabama should be favored should be enough to make the Playoff field.
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