It was a surprise to many when Alabama football opened as a 1.5-point favorite over Oklahoma on the road for the first round of the College Football Playoff.
The Crimson Tide has not played well enough in recent weeks to be favored over any quality team, especially on the road. It was even more surprising given that this is a rematch of a regular season meeting that Oklahoma won in Tuscaloosa.
But it pointed to oddsmakers understanding that Alabama was the better team in the regular season matchup. The Crimson Tide had a post-game win expectancy of 95% against the Sooners in November, but their undoing was a -3 turnover margin that swung the game in the wrong direction.
But a recent course correction for the odds points to where the money has gone since Alabama opened at -1.5.
While there still could be further fluctuation, as of Thursday morning, the line has shifted a full three points. Oklahoma is now a 1.5-point favorite, according to FanDuel. The game is effectively a coin flip, with both teams being -108 on the moneyline.
Alabama is now an underdog for the CFP rematch at Oklahoma
Alabama should be the underdog for this matchup. The way the Tide played two weeks ago in the SEC Championship Game was pitiful. They've gotten healthier since then, but they'll need to go prove it on the field before anyone is ready to believe in them again. Alabama fans included.
Oklahoma has also had Alabama's number. Kalen DeBoer is 0-2 head-to-head against Brent Venables. A year ago in Norman, the Crimson Tide was ambushed. Alabama walked into the game with playoff aspirations and fell to what was a .500 Oklahoma team, which effectively ended the Crimson Tide's season.
DeBoer and company will look to avoid that for a second straight year. Can he and the coaching staff find the answers to solve the puzzle of Venables' defense? Alabama moved the ball effectively in this year's regular-season matchup, putting up over 400 yards of offense.
If Alabama can move the ball like that again tomorrow night, but avoid the back-breaking turnovers, then the Crimson Tide will have a great shot at winning and advancing to the Rose Bowl.