There seems to be significant confidence from sharp betters on Saturday morning that Alabama is going to beat Tennessee.
The spread on FanDuel sat at Alabama -8.5 early this morning, which is where it has been for a few days, but the latest odds update has seen the Crimson Tide rise to be favored by a full point more. Alabama now sits at -9.5 over the Vols, less than eight hours before kickoff.
That line change could be due to confidence coming from Alabama that Jam Miller will be able to play. He has been listed as probable on the availability report the last two days. Kalen DeBoer said on Saturday morning in an appearance on SEC Nation that the expectation is Miller will be able to play.
That's a huge boost for the Crimson Tide. Tennessee ranks 114th in the country in run defense success rate, and Alabama's ground game has improved dramatically in recent weeks with Miller's return from a preseason injury. He ran for 136 yards against Vanderbilt two weeks ago, and mustered 80 yards a week ago in CoMo against a Missouri defense that came in ranked No. 1 in the country in rushing yards per game allowed.
Alabama's dominance of Tennessee in Tuscaloosa is a factor
After losing to Alabama for 15 consecutive seasons, Tennessee has won two of the last three. But those two both happened in Knoxville. Alabama has won the last 10 meetings in Tuscaloosa. The last Vols win in Bryant-Denny was way back in 2003 when Mike Shula was the Tide's head coach.
The last four in Tuscaloosa haven't even been close. It's been 10 years since Tennessee played Alabama within one possession at Bryant-Denny. The last four Alabama home games against Tennessee have gone like this:
2023: Alabama 34, Tennessee 20
2021: Alabama 52, Tennessee 24
2019: Alabama 35, Tennessee 13
2017: Alabama 45, Tennessee 7
Tennessee is 5-1, but the Vols have looked less than impressive in SEC play. The Vols took Georgia to overtime at home, but since then have struggled to earn wins over teams likely to finish near the bottom of the SEC standings. Josh Heupel's team earned three-point wins over Mississippi State and Arkansas in its last two conference games.
There's no doubt Heupel will have his team ready to play against Alabama. Kalen DeBoer will have to be prepared to weather an early storm. If Alabama can do that and settle into the game, the Crimson Tide should find a path to a revenge victory.