On a sad Sunday for Alabama Crimson Tide fans, the CFB Playoff situation is in disarray. Making it worse is that the team most at fault for the muddled circumstances is not Oklahoma, but Alabama. No discredit to the Sooners, but Alabama mostly beat itself to drop to 8-2.
After Week 12 games, the SEC is in a position to possibly have five playoff teams. Using ESPN's FPI, Alabama has the SEC's fourth-highest probability at 83.9%. Texas A&M is at 99.8%, Georgia is at 99%, and Ole Miss is at 89%. The Sooners are lower than the Crimson Tide at 49.2%.
After beating Eastern Illinois and Auburn, Alabama is expected to advance to the SEC Championship Game via the conference opponent win percentage tiebreaker. The Playoff Selection Committee stated last year that it would not penalize a team for losing a conference championship game. So even at 10-3 with a loss in Atlanta, Alabama should be a playoff team.
Current predictions of the Crimson Tide's playoff seeding range from No. 6 to No. 10. The No. 6 prediction in Tuesday night's rankings comes from CBS Sports' Brad Crawford. On the lower end of forecasts for the next playoff rankings, 12 ESPN college football experts provided seven No. 9 seeds for Alabama and five No. 10 seeds. Bill Bender of The Sporting News has Alabama as a No. 8 seed.
The Crimson Tide will get no playoff rankings boost from beating an FCS team and the lowly Auburn Tigers. The best scenario for Alabama to not finish as a No. 9 or No. 10 seed would be winning the SEC Championship Game. With no upset in Atlanta, teams above the Crimson Tide in the playoff rankings would have to falter for Alabama not to be a first-round playoff road team.
Best and Worst Alabama Crimson Tide Playoff Predictions
Alabama fans can hope Bill Bender proves to be an oracle. His current prediction has the Crimson Tide hosting the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in Bryant-Denny Stadium. USA Today's Paul Myerberg has a playoff prediction that would be considered a nightmare situation by Alabama fans. Myerberg has Alabama opening the Playoff on the road against Oklahoma in Norman.