The best Playoff scenario for the Alabama Crimson Tide does not include Atlanta

There's no avoiding the reality that the Alabama Crimson Tide has played three games in which it did not resemble a CFB Playoff contender. The total focus for the Alabama Football staff and team must be on returning to earlier form and beating Missouri. Two of the three Tigers left on the schedule are capable of beating the Alabama team that lost to Vandy and Tennessee and struggled against South Carolina. The Oklahoma game in Norman is no lock either.

On Monday, Kane Wommack shared what he told the defensive players about moving forward, "... all that should be on our minds is what do we have to do to beat Missouri on Saturday. Everything outside of that is a distraction." The bottom line for the entire roster should be no 'what ifs' about the past or the future.

With Bama's back against the Playoff wall, Alabama Crimson Tide fans can contemplate a wide range of 'what ifs' about Playoff chances. On Tuesday night, Nov. 5, we will learn how the CFB Playoff Selection Committee ranks the Crimson Tide. With a win over Missouri, Alabama will be 6-2.

Of course, Alabama must now run the regular season table. That is a big challenge given Alabama's recent play, but it is achievable. There are some reasons for optimism. ESPN Analytics still has Alabama with the higher probability of winning its remaining regular season games. The LSU Bengal Tigers are ranked above Alabama in the traditional polls (No. 7, Coaches and No. 8 AP), but ESPN projects Alabama has a 61.9% probability of beating LSU. The ESPN projections are higher for Bama's other games; 82.8% against Missouri; 77.6% against Oklahoma, and 88.7% against Auburn in the Iron Bowl.

Highest-Ranked 2-Loss Team is Alabama Crimson Tide

It is also significant Alabama is the highest-ranked two-loss team in the traditional polls and ESPN's FPI. At least with the FPI and hopefully with the CFB Playoff Selection Committee, Strength of Schedule matters. Alabama has college football's best win. With Vanderbilt now ranked No. 25 in both polls, the Crimson Tide no longer has the worst loss.

A new big if is how many SEC teams will make the Playoffs. The current estimates range from two to four. At four SEC Playoff teams, a 10-2 Crimson Tide would have a good chance. It should not take Alabama having to win the SEC Championship Game to make the Playoffs. If that perspective is valid, it is possible advancing to Atlanta, with the risk of losing, might not be best for the Crimson Tide.

A closing disclaimer is to me SEC Championships remain important achievements. Alabama winning one in December would be great. Losing in Atlanta, and thereby possibly missing the Playoff field, would be a huge disappointment.