Alabama rose to No. 1 in the country in 2024 after beating Georgia at home in Week 5. Then, a rough stretch hit for Kalen DeBoer and the Tide, losing two of three and nearly dropping a home game against South Carolina between the road losses to Vanderbilt and Tennessee. Then, Missouri served as a much-needed get-right game heading into a bye week.
The Tide pounded the Tigers, who were without their starting quarterback, Brady Cook, 34-0 at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Missouri didn’t stand a chance of moving the ball with Drew Pyne replacing Cook, and now Eli Drinkwitz’s team is entering the 2025 season with a new quarterback, likely Penn State transfer Beau Pribula, a new starting running back, and three new wide receivers.
Kane Wommack’s defense should be up to the task in Columbia, but could Missouri’s defense pose problems for Kalen DeBoer and Ryan Grubb’s side of the ball?
The numbers say Missouri’s run defense was elite in 2024, but was it really?
Missouri had one of the more bizarre 10-3 seasons you’re ever going to see last year. Despite winning double-digit games for the second consecutive year, it’s not clear if the Tigers were any good. Their three losses, to Alabama, Texas A&M, and South Carolina, came by a combined 69 points. Their only win over a ranked opponent came in Week 3 against then No. 24 Boston College, which was being propped up by a win over Florida State before it became clear that the Seminoles were in a complete tailspin.
Defensively, Missouri finished 10th in EPA/rush allowed at -0.12 and 19th in rushing success rate. Statistically, the Tigers were clearly one of the best run defenses in the country. Yet, once again, their matchups against quality SEC opponents told a different story.
Alabama, which struggled to run the ball effectively with its running backs last season, ripped off 267 yards on the ground, led by 79 on eight carries from Justice Haynes. Texas A&M, which had not yet made the full-time switch to the athletic Marcel Reed at quarterback, took the Tigers for 236 rushing yards. So, which Missouri was the real Missouri?
Losing Jalen Milroe to the NFL is likely to hurt Alabama’s ground-game production in 2025. There are arguments to be made that, without every run-game decision being funnelled through Milroe and an option-heavy attack, the consistency could improve, but let’s assume it takes a small step back. Missouri, on the other hand, with the addition of West Virginia transfer linebacker Josiah Trotter, should be even better against the run.
Early season matchups with Florida State and Georgia should be more telling about the state of the ground game in DeBoer’s program, but this midseason showdown with Missouri will serve as a nice comparison point against last year’s team.
For Alabama to win the SEC and compete for a national title, the entire offense likely can’t be on Ty Simpson’s shoulders in his first season as a starter. Jam Miller, Richard Young, and Louisiana transfer Dre Washington will need to be productive against a defense that could measure up statistically, as one of the best again in 2025.