Unless you get incredible luck in a bloated 16-team conference, an SEC schedule will always be a gauntlet. Every week represents an opportunity for a perennial contender like Alabama to slip up and get knocked out of the CFP picture. However, this season, the Third Saturday in October appears to be a unique fulcrum on which the Crimson Tide’s hopes reside.
Alabama has lost two of its last three rivalry games to Tennessee, both in Knoxville, so Kalen DeBoer will be happy to spend the Third Saturday in October at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Aside from obvious reasons, this matchup will be particularly crucial for Alabama to win because of its placement in the schedule, a few weeks removed from a slugfest in Athens, and just ahead of a three-game stretch against South Carolina, LSU, and Oklahoma.
Beat Tennessee, and regardless of how the Week 5 matchup with Georgia went, Alabama should be in prime shape to get into the 12-team CFP. Lose and DeBoer is in clear danger of another three-loss season after falling to a program that lost its starting quarterback in the spring.
Tennessee is in a precarious situation after putting their foot down in NIL negotiations with Nico Iamaleava and letting the former five-star QB walk to UCLA. Josh Heupel was able to salvage the spring portal window by bringing back Joey Aguilar from the Bruins, but the former App State quarterback is now being asked to make a massive jump from the Sun Belt to the bright lights of the SEC.
Led by Aguilar, Heupel’s offense may not be the same force it has been in the past, but the Vols do have an elite defensive weapon who could help keep Ty Simpson, Ryan Williams, and the Crimson Tide's passing game in check.
Jermod McCoy might be the Ryan Williams stopper
For Simpson to succeed in his first year as the starter, he’ll need to lean on his talented group of wide receivers, a group led by Williams as he heads into his sophomore season. Williams was unnaturally productive as a 17-year-old true freshman, finishing with 48 catches for 865 yards and eight touchdowns. He saw big-time volume in a run-heavy offense, particularly against the Vols.
Williams finished with eight catches for 73 yards and a touchdown in Alabama’s 24-17 loss to Tennessee last season, but he did it on a staggering 17 targets and only caught one of his five targets for 12 yards when covered by Tennessee’s star cornerback, Jermod McCoy. The Oregon State transfer earned second-team All-SEC honors as a sophomore and will be one of the toughest matchups Williams has to face in 2025, assuming he’s healthy enough to take the field by Week 8.
McCoy suffered a torn ACL in January during a training session at his home in East Texas. That’s a big problem for the potential 2025 first-round draft pick and the best player on Josh Heupel’s roster.
McCoy wasn’t just a problem for Williams. He was targeted nine times by Jalen Milroe in Knoxville and allowed just three grabs for 16 total yards, while returning an interception the other way for 54 yards.
PICKED OFF IN THE END ZONE BY MCCOY! pic.twitter.com/urAKNngx8C
— Mr Matthew CFB (@MrMatthew_CFB) October 19, 2024
Alabama won’t have the same dynamic element in the run game with Milroe in the NFL, so Simpson will need to dissect defenses through the air, and if McCoy is 100%, Simpson would be wise to throw to the other side of the field.