Alabama basketball will be a one or two-seed in the NCAA Tournament for just the fifth time in school history. How well they do in this week's SEC Tournament will ultimately determine if the Crimson Tide can move up to a one-seed or not. Regardless, they seem locked in to no lower than a two-seed.
As such, you have to like the Crimson Tide's chances of at least making the second round. Only two 16-seeds have ever upset a 1-seed in the Big Dance. A 15-over-2 upset happens a bit more frequently; that's happened 11 times in tournament history, most recently in 2023 when Princeton upset Arizona.
Statistically, none of the potential 15 or 16 seeds match up well with Alabama. That doesn't mean the Tide is guaranteed a victory, however; weird things tend to happen in March and nothing is ever guaranteed. That's why you have to enjoy the full journey of the college basketball season and not put your entire self-worth and enjoyment of the sport on the line in the NCAA Tournament.
Alabama's obvious goal will be to win the whole thing. To me, getting to the second weekend of the tournament should always be viewed as a major accomplishment. Once there, you are playing against almost exclusively elite teams, and a lot of the games will be toss-ups where shot-variance tends to play a big role.
If Alabama makes the Sweet 16, that should be considered a successful tournament run. But there are potential landmines that await in the Round of 32 this year. Let's examine five potential 2nd round opponents the Crimson Tide should want to avoid:
The 5 potential second round opponents Alabama should want to avoid to ensure a deep tournament run
5. San Diego State
KenPom:
Overall: 43
Offense: 105
Defense: 12
Tempo: 241
Taking San Diego State seriously would be pretty easy for Alabama fans considering the Aztecs ended the season for what was arguably the best team in school history two years ago. The No. 1 overall seeded Crimson Tide lost in the Sweet 16 two years ago to San Diego State and could be in line for a rematch in the 2nd round this year.
As of now, Joe Lunardi has San Diego State as a projected 10-seed in his latest bracketology.
The Aztecs will try to control the tempo and muddy the game up by limiting possessions. They successfully employed that strategy two years ago, and while they don't have the same offensive firepower as they did two years ago, they remain one of the best defensive teams in the country.
San Diego State's trio of guards - Nick Boyd, Miles Byrd, and BJ Davis - are elite on-ball defenders and would make life tough for Mark Sears and company. The Aztecs are really good at forcing turnovers, something the Tide's offense has obviously struggled with.
4. Marquette
KenPom:
Overall: 26
Offense: 33
Defense: 22
Tempo: 192
Marquette is another team that will try to control the tempo if they match up with the Crimson Tide. They are one of the best teams in the country in doing just that. Per KenPom, Marquette ranks 8th in the country in offensive turnover rate. Defensively, they are 13th in the country in forcing turnovers. They do a great job of stealing extra possessions and forcing you to play to their style.
The Golden Eagles are led by one of the country's best guards in Kam Jones. He's one of those players capable of putting a team on his back and leading them on a deep March run. Currently, Lunardi has Marquette as a 7-seed, lining them up to potentially take on the Crimson Tide in the 2nd round of the tournament.
3. Louisville
KenPom:
Overall: 23
Offense: 30
Defense: 18
Tempo: 96
Pat Kelsey has led Louisville to a remarkable turnaround in his first season on the job. The Cardinals won just 12 total games combined the last two seasons. This year, Louisville enters the ACC Tournament at a remarkable 25-6 and a lock to make the NCAA Tournament.
Due to the weakness of this year's ACC, Lunardi currently has Louisville projected as a 7-seed; they've been projected a six for a while and could conceivably still end up there, which would allow Alabama to avoid them until at least the Sweet 16.
Alabama fans are familiar with Kelsey. He was the head coach of Charleston - Alabama's first round opponent in the tournament a year ago. His teams like to shoot a lot of threes and unlike his team at Charleston last year, the Cardinals defend.
Chucky Hepburn is a pesky guard and averaged 2.4 steals per game. He would likely draw the assignment of Sears and would work to make his life miserable. Louisville has four guards who average at least 12 points per game with Terrence Edwards Jr., Reyne Smith (Charleston transfer), and J'Vonne Hadley joining leading scorer Hepburn.
Louisville will be entering the tournament as one of the hottest teams in the country. Heading into the ACC Tournament, the Cardinals have won 18 of their last 19 games.
2. Kansas
KenPom:
Overall: 21
Offense: 52
Defense: 8
Tempo: 118
Kansas has been one of the most underachieving teams in college basketball this season. They finished the regular season just 20-11 overall after starting the year as preseason No. 1. The fact remains, however, that they have one of the most talented rosters in the country and are capable of flipping the switch when the lights are brightest.
Hunter Dickinson is a double-double machine and defends the rim well. K.J. Adams and Flory Bidunga could provide matchup issues in the paint for the Crimson Tide, too. Alabama would need similar efforts from Cliff Omoruyi and Grant Nelson that they got against Auburn on Saturday to have success in this game.
The Jayhawks have plenty of talent on the perimeter, too. Zeke Mayo is a sharpshooting guard, and all Alabama fans know how hot Rylan Griffen can get.
Offense has been a struggle for Bill Self and his team, but they are elite on defense and possess the capability of frustrating Alabama's offense. Lunardi currently has the Jayhawks on the 6-seed line, but an early loss in the Big 12 Tournament could see them fall back to a 7-seed.
1. Gonzaga
KenPom:
Overall: 9
Offense: 9
Defense: 35
Tempo: 44
All of the projected top seeds in the tournament are going to be hoping to avoid Gonzaga. Mark Few's Bulldogs are beloved by the algortihms; KenPom thinks they are a Top 10 team in the country. Despite that, due to the weakness of the West Coast Conference and a lack of marquee wins, Gonzaga is currently projected as an 8-seed and the worst nightmare of a 1-seed. If Gonzaga is going to be the top 8-seed in the tournament, I think all three teams competing for the final No. 1 seed would prefer sliding to the 2-seed line for a more favorable matchup.
Gonzaga is one of a few teams good enough offensively to win a shootout against Alabama if shot variance goes their way. They have a similar statistical profile with Alabama being slightly better on both ends, but not by much.
The Bulldogs are solid across the board. They don't make many mistakes. They don't turn the ball over and they hit a high percentage of their free throws and their shots inside the arc.
Senior guard Ryan Nembhard is the engine for this team and averages a nation-leading 10.0 assists per game. Graham Ike is a load to deal with down low, averaging 17/7 in just 22 minutes per game, and then Nembhard, Nolan Hickman, and Khalif Battle are all capable shooters who are waiting to make you pay for defensive mistakes.
If you are looking for a team in the 6-to-8 seed range to make a run when you are filling out your bracket, Gonzaga is a pretty good bet. Just hope it's not at the expense of Nate Oats and the Crimson Tide.