Going into Sunday's 12 noon game, the Florida Gators are favored to beat Alabama Basketball in the betting markets and by the computer models. ESPN Analytics gives the Crimson Tide a 26.9% probability of winning.
It is reasonable to believe the home crowd will push the Gators to a close win over the Crimson Tide. It is not unreasonable to think that Nate Oats' team can gain an upset.
Why Alabama Basketball Wins
Nate Oats has an advantage over Todd Golden in guard play. Not only are the Crimson Tide guards collectively better than Florida guards, but Labaron Philon and Aden Holloway are also much better offensively than Florida's starting guards. Florida neutralizes the comparison somewhat because the Gators' guards are better defensively. But Golden's best offensive guard is backup Urban Klavzar. Xaivian Lee was so bad against Auburn that Golden effectively benched the starter, playing him only 15 minutes. If Philon and Holloway are just near their normal production, and Latrell Wrightsell cools a bit (but does not go cold) from his torrid shooting against Missouri, the Tide can explode points.
The Gators also have some clear advantages. Thomas Haugh is an outstanding player. He leads the team in scoring and is a threat from both inside and outside. He did have a tough outing three games ago, scoring only seven points in 35 minutes against LSU. Also dangerous for the Gators is Alex Condon, but as described by the Only Gators site, Condon has "regressed' from last season. Against LSU and Auburn, Condon made little impact. In Florida's last four games, Condon shot 10-for-32. His season three-point shooting success is 14%.
The Crimson Tide's biggest challenge against Florida is rebounding. The Gators, led by Rueben Chinyelu, are a tremendous rebounding team. At 6'11" and 245lbs. Chinyelu is a physical force that will cause Alabama problems. He played 23 minutes against LSU and grabbed 21 rebounds. Near the basket, Chinyelu's scoring is so effective that it often creates foul problems for opposing defenders.
How the Crimson Tide Wins
In addition to the givens in every game about turnovers and rebounding being keys, Alabama must wear down the Gators with pace of play. Florida relies on eight players, and Alabama's tempo can tire the Florida bigs.
Alabama also cannot afford serious foul trouble to Chuck Bediako and Aiden Sherrell. Neither Bol Bowen nor Williamson can guard Chinyelu or keep him off the glass. Philon, Holloway, and Wrightsell must also not waste fouls.
Perhaps essential for the Crimson Tide is Amari Allen being able to play. Even at less than 100%, Allen's physicality would boost the Crimson Tide.
Note: Player stats provided by Sports Reference