No one thing wins a football game. However, one key result can determine an outcome. Against Oklahoma, the Alabama Crimson Tide will be motivated for a payback game. That motivation might be more powerful due to Oklahoma's post-game disrespect in Tuscaloosa. Neither will likely be enough to tip the scales in favor of the Crimson Tide.
One requirement for Alabama will be to maximize its defensive advantage over an only slightly better than average, Oklahoma offense. That will be harder to do in Norman than it was in Tuscaloosa. Another necessity for Alabama will be not to beat itself in special teams play. The Sooners have a big advantage in special teams, and Alabama cannot let its own mistakes determine the outcome of a close game. As in any close game, turnover margin will be a huge determinant.
Most important for the Alabama Crimson Tide to beat Oklahoma is that Brent Venables cannot be allowed to outcoach Kalen DeBoer and Ryan Grubb. More than a few Alabama Crimson Tide fans are not sure the Tide's offensive duo will prevail.
In conference games only, the two defenses are almost equal. Alabama has allowed opponents to convert on third down 33.61% of the time, ranking No. 22 among FBS teams. At 34.43% the Sooners are ranked No. 24.
In Oklahoma's 23-21 win over Alabama, the Crimson Tide converted 5-of-13 third downs (38.5%). At Oklahoma Memorial Stadium, it will be far more difficult for Alabama to achieve third-down conversions. Based on the team's eight conference games and the November game, Alabama is the much better offensive team. The Crimson Tide ranks No. 52 among FBS teams for third-down conversions at 41.35%. The Sooners are No. 111, at 33.61%.
Stats suggest an Alabama Crimson Tide win
The stats suggest that, barring turnovers, Alabama should beat Oklahoma. That will not likely happen unless DeBoer and Grubb outcoach Brent Venables often enough, producing first downs and points, preventing the Alabama defense from wearing down from too many short Alabama possessions. Venables is an outstanding defensive coach, and arguably college football's best. His defense will win many plays. Alabama's offense must counter with efficiency.
Statistically, based on FEI ratings, the Oklahoma offense is less efficient than Auburn's woeful offense. In the same ratings, Alabama is the SEC's No. 6 and No. 12 across the FBS. Oklahoma is the SEC's No. 12 team and No. 52 nationally. The Alabama defense should be able to handle the Oklahoma offense, but doing so will require Kalen DeBoer and Ryan Grubb to not allow the Oklahoma defense to dominate the game.
Note: Stats provided by cfbstats.com, ESPN, and Brian Fremeau