In the post-Nick Saban era of college football, Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables may have the game's best defensive mind. The improved Alabama Crimson Tide defense is good, but the Oklahoma defense is better.
Can Oklahoma's defensive edge be enough to pull off an upset of Alabama? Because of Venables, Oklahoma has a good chance if certain things happen. According to PFF's Cam Mellor, the Sooners lead the FBS in sack rate, without blitzing at 10.9%. Venables has a career history of pressuring quarterbacks with four or fewer pass rushers. The Sooners are second-best among SEC football teams in opponent third-down conversions at 30.37%.
The key to the Sooners affecting opposing quarterbacks is the situation Alabama must avoid. It is confusion, arising among pass blockers and Ty Simpson. Venables is known for employing an array of defensive looks that confuse the opposing offense.
There has been chatter about Oklahoma stealing signs, but every football staff tries to do what the Sooners excel at doing: anticipating the opponent. Alabama will counter with disguises and Ty Simpson being good at pre-snap reads. The chess game will likely determine the outcome. The biggest risk for the Crimson Tide is confusion leading to missed blocking assignments. If it happens frequently, Simpson could be neutralized.
Alabama will not give up on running the ball. Oklahoma's rushing defense has allowed only 2.42 yards per carry in SEC games, No. 1 among SEC teams. Ryan Grubb will be forced to be creative. Fortunately for the Alabama Crimson Tide, Grubb is adept at stressing defenses in multiple ways.
Oklahoma Challenge to the Alabama Crimson Tide
Even with Ryan Grubb calling a great game, Alabama will be challenged. Ty Simpson knows what to expect, having learned from what happened to the Crimson Tide in Norman last season. Simpson remembers the Sooners made numerous bye-week changes that the Crimson Tide could not counter. He expects the same approach this Saturday.
There is no doubt that Oklahoma, creating confusion or not, will get wins on key plays against Alabama. There is also reason for optimism that Alabama will win more key plays. One reason comes from a less-noticed stat. Alabama's defense is actually better than Oklahoma in a couple of statistical comparisons. When measured only by SEC games, the Crimson Tide is No. 2, allowing 32.43% of third-down conversions. Oklahoma is No. 6 at 39.51%. Also in SEC games, Alabama ranks No. 3 in converting third downs at 48.31%, compared to Oklahoma, No. 12 at 36.23%.
Facing Playoff elimination, the Sooners will wage war Saturday afternoon. As long as Alabama matches the intensity and avoids too much confusion, the Crimson Tide should prevail.
Note: Stats provided by cfbstats.com