There is always much to see in a Football Power Index (FPI) update. Alabama football fans have been enjoying ESPN's rankings all season. According to ESPN's current FPI, the Alabama Crimson Tide is the top SEC team and the No. 3 team in the FBS.
As it should be with still not enough games having been played for adequate, the FPI can be questioned and doubted. ESPN makes sure that fans know only so much about its calculations. ESPN's various analytics can be lauded for providing a massive amount of information presented in clear tables.
The top eight teams in the current FPI are tightly packed. Oregon at No. 1 has a 23.6 rating. Ohio State is at 22.4, Alabama Football at 22.2, Georgia at 21.7, Texas at 21.4, Indiana at 21.4, USC at 20.8, and Ole Miss at 20.7. The Hoosiers exploded up the rankings 10 spots after beating Illinois 63-10.
Alabama football fans are quick to debate the ranking for Indiana, given the vanilla schedules the Hoosiers played last season and continue to play this season.
Trusting the Alabama Football FPI Ranking
As much as Alabama fans can enjoy the Crimson Tide remaining at No. 3 in the FPI, there are indications ESPN's models present some potentially troublesome results. ESPN Analytics gives the Crimson Tide a less than 70% probability to win five SEC games. Alabama has a 45.2% probability to beat Georgia, 57% to beat Missouri, 66.5% to beat Tennessee, and 69.8% to beat Auburn.
On making the CFB Playoff field, Alabama is given a 49.3% probability. The SEC teams that are higher are Georgia at 74.4%, Ole Miss at 67.2%, and Texas at 50.1%. ESPN's 'Win Out' calculation for Alabama is a 2.5% probability. Three SEC teams are higher, but also low; Ole Miss at 5.7%, Georgia at 4%, and Texas at 3.7%.
Alabama has only the 11th-best Strength of Record (SOR) among SEC teams, at No. 44 among FBS teams. The Crimson Tide's remaining SOS is ranked No. 7 in the FBS by ESPN. Six SEC teams have what the ESPN model defines as tougher paths: Mississippi State and Florida are No. 1 and No. 2 among FBS teams. Oklahoma is at No. 3, Arkansas No. 5, and LSU No. 6.
Reasoned Alabama fans can admit to knowing how good Alabama is and how good it can become. No algorithm has the answer either. Four straight games against ranked teams and six of the next seven games against ranked teams will be revealing.