Anxious Alabama football fans take notice. There has been an early onslaught of Human and computer predictions favoring the Alabama Crimson Tide over Oklahoma.
ESPN Analytics has Alabama beating Oklahoma in the College Football Playoff first round, with a slightly favorable probability of 50.9%. That number will not calm many Crimson Tide fans. The Massey Ratings projects a 24-21 Alabama win with a probability of 59%. Playoff game predictions are yet to be published from Jeff Sagarin's and Brian Fremeau's models.
The onslaught of pro-Alabama predictions comes from humans rather than computers. Eight CBS Sports/247Sports experts have made predictions for every Playoff game. Brad Crawford, David Cobb, Chris Hummer, Shehan Jeyarajah, Brandon Marcello, John Talty, Chip Patterson, and Tom Fornelli all picked the Crimson Tide to advance to the Playoff quarterfinals. None of them picked Alabama to get past Indiana to reach the semi-finals. The CBD picks did not include game scores.
Eleven ESPN experts have also picked all the Playoff games. Seven of ESPN's 11 experts picked the Alabama Crimson Tide to win. The winning scores for Alabama are: 20-17 (Andrea Adelson), 31-28 (Kyle Bonagura), 17-10 (David Hale), 21-10 (Eli Lederman), 13-10 (Max Olsen), 20-17 (Adam Rittenberg), and 17-14 (Mark Schlabach). The winning scores for Oklahoma are: 27-17 (Bill Connelly), 17-16 (Jake Trotter), 21-17 (Paolo Uggetti, and 23-17 (Dave Wilson). It is interesting that Connelly's SP+ computer model also picks the Sooners, but with a tighter margin of 24-21. The SP+ model gives the Sooners a 58% probability of winning.
One source predicts a tight Alabama vs. Indiana battle in a quarterfinal game
For USA Today, Paul Myerberg has also picked every Playoff game. Myerberg has the Alabama Crimson Tide beating the Oklahoma Sooners 21-16. Myerberg predicts a close Indiana win in a quarterfinal by a score of 27-24.
Stormin' In Norman quoted Brent Venables, saying, "I know, for some people, maybe we don't belong in the playoffs. But we're here. I know a lot of teams were hoping they'd get matched up with Oklahoma, potentially, in the playoffs. Our focus, our energy, detail, is to be able to play for a championship, no matter how crazy that might seem to everybody else. Our team believes we have everything we need to be able to do so."