Let’s start here, there’s a long way to go in the college football season. Alabama hosts No. 11 Oklahoma in Week 12 at Bryant-Denny Stadium, then has the Iron Bowl in the final week of the year, which is hardly ever easy. That’s not to mention all the other machinations across the country that could change the College Football Playoff seeding before the 12-team playoff begins in December.
However, let’s assume that the top four teams, Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, and Alabama, which remained unchanged from last week’s rankings, win out. That would match the Buckeyes and the Hoosiers up in the Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis and the Aggies and Crimson Tide up in the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta.
Well, last season proved that the committee isn’t eager to penalize teams for a loss in a conference championship game, largely because the conferences want to keep the money they get from those games, and if teams drop out because of them, they’ll want to get rid of them going forward.
Stick with me here. Understanding that, the top four may change in order after the conference championships, but it’s unlikely that a loss would cost any of those teams a bye, especially with Alabama’s head-to-head win over Georgia, which currently sits at No. 5.
So, the SEC Championship Game could only have a few spots in the rankings at play (and, you know, a little thing called the SEC Title). The two conference champs from the Big Ten and SEC will likely take the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds. Those spots, though, could be everything for Alabama’s path to the national championship.
Alabama might need to get up at least one spot in the CFP Rankings
As the bracket currently sits, No. 4 Alabama would play the winner of Georgia and USF. Alabama has had Georgia’s number over the recent years, but that matchup certainly wouldn’t be preferable. Then, if you win that game, your reward is likely a matchup with No. 1 Ohio State in the CFP semifinals.
On the other side of this week’s bracket, Texas A&M gets a more favorable draw, playing the winner of Texas Tech and Miami, which is a placeholder as the highest-ranked ACC team. Miami is unlikely to win the conference title. With two ACC losses, the Hurricanes are currently seventh.
While Texas Tech is a good team, it has one of the worst red zone offenses in the country, ranking 108th in the country in red zone touchdown percentage. Though the Red Raiders have an elite pass-rush, which could be problematic for an Alabama team that relies heavily on its quarterback to move the ball, the Big 12 champion will likely be a lower-rated team than the third-best SEC team.
While that matchup may be more favorable for the Crimson Tide, the key is to get on the other side of the bracket from Ohio State, which has been the most dominant team in the country all year.
It’s a subtle difference, and if Ohio State is really that good, Alabama will theoretically have to beat them in the national championship anyway, but prolonging that meeting increases the Tide’s chances of getting to the final game of the season, and increases the chances of somebody else pulling the upset of the Buckeyes.
The draw can be everything in a 12-team playoff format, and while no team will be as lucky as Penn State was a year ago, there are still small differences in the potential paths that Alabama could be forced to navigate this winter.