The betting markets have Alabama losing to Michigan by double-digits in the Sweet 16. More troubling is that Phd. statistician Evan Miyakawa has the Wolverines beating the Crimson Tide by 16 points.
There are many good reasons for Michigan to be heavily favored. There are fewer reasons why Alabama might pull off the upset, but the Tide doing so, while improbable, is not impossible.
There is ample time for deep dives into the 2026 Alabama and Michigan teams. An early week perspective on Alabama's Sweet 16 history is worthy of notice. Going back to 1976 when Alabama played eventual National Championship Indiana in a Round of 16 game, the Crimson Tide is 3-9 in 'Sweets'.
In 1976, Alabama came close to knocking off college basketball's last undefeated National Champion. Alabama did not make another Sweet 16 until 1985. Alabama lost to North Carolina State, 61-55. Alabama advanced to the Sweet 16 the following season and lost to the Kentucky Wildcats 68-63.
As a 2-seed, Alabama lost in the 1987 Sweet 16 to Rick Pitino-coached Providence, 103-82. Florida's coaching legend, Billy Donovan, was the leading scorer for the Friars.
The Crimson Tide missed the Big Dance in 1988 and lost to South Alabama in 1989's First Round, 86-84.
In 1990, Alabama faced college basketball's highest scoring team in the Sweet 16, Loyola-Marymount. Wimp Sanderson's strategy of slowing the pace almost worked, but the Crimson Tide lost 62-60.
The following season, the Arkansas Razorbacks blew out the Crimson Tide in the Sweet 16 by a score of 93-70. At 0-6 in its NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 history, Alabama was a long way from what it has become under Nate Oats.
Alabama basketball fans had a long wait for the Crimson Tide to make another Sweet 16. It came in 2004, when Mark Gottfried's team beat Syracuse 80-71 to advance to the Elite Eight.
Nate Oats and Alabama Big Dance Success
After another long interval of Big Dance disappointment, Nate Oats has gotten the Crimson Tide to Sweet 16 games in 2021, 2023, 2024, 2025, and 2026. Alabama has a 2-2 record in those games. Whatever happens on Friday in Chicago, Nate Oats has made NCAA Tournament Sweet 16s sweeter than any other Alabama coach.
Note" Alabama team records provided by Sports Reference