Spring practice is over, and the Transfer Portal is officially closed. We now have a good idea of what rosters will look like across the country. There might be some minute changes here and there between now and kickoff in late August, but for the most part, we know what teams are going to look like in 2025.
We are breaking the SEC down into four tiers. First off is the "Elite" tier, the cream of the crop, best of the best. Then we have the "contenders", teams that could easily win the conference title but are probably a step below the truly elite programs.
Then there's the "possible with luck" tier. The teams that probably won't win the SEC Championship, but could conceivably make a run with some luck, or perhaps a generational performance from a player. Call it the 2010 Auburn tier, if you'd like.
But first, we're going to talk about the bottom tier of SEC teams. The programs that have no chance of winning the conference or making the College Football Playoff. These teams could conceivably make a bowl game, but they are mostly hopeless.
These are the teams you see on your schedule and automatically mark as a "W" before the season starts.
These four teams have no chance of winning the SEC or making the College Football Playoff
Mississippi State Bulldogs
2024 was a real "year zero" situation for Jeff Lebby in Starkville. The Bulldogs went 2-10 and weren't competitive in many games. Things should be better in 2025, but there's no path to winning the SEC or being a legitimate playoff threat for Mississippi State in 2025.
They do have an experienced QB in Blake Shapen and added some talent on offense in the Transfer Portal. South Alabama RB Fluff Bothwell, Oklahoma WR Brenen Thompson, and Georgia WR Anthony Evans III are a nice upgrade at the skill positions from a year ago.
Making a bowl game would be a nice step in the right direction for the Bulldogs, but even that seems unlikely.
Arkansas Razorbacks
There may not be a coach on a hotter seat to open the season than Sam Pittman. Arkansas has gone 30-31 in his five seasons at the helm in Fayetteville. He salvaged another season with an unexpected 7-6 campaign in 2024, coming off of bottoming out in 2023.
Taylen Green is one of the top dual-threat QBs out there, and with Bobby Petrino still calling the plays, the Hogs will probably put up plenty of points., The question will be whether they can stop anyone. Arkansas ranked 70th in the country in yards-per-play defense last year.
Kentucky Wildcats
Last year's 4-8 finish ended a streak of eight consecutive bowl berths for Mark Stoops at Kentucky. It's that fact that bought him at least one more season in Lexington. He's won at a level that not many football coaches have with the Wildcats, but college football is all about what have you done for me lately.
The Wildcats weren't good on either side of the ball a year ago, but their offensive ineptitude was particularly costly. Stoops went out and added QB Zach Calzada, a seventh-year senior, in the Transfer Portal. Alabama fans will remember Calzada as the starting QB for Texas A&M in 2021 when the Aggies upset the Crimson Tide in College Station.
Calzada spent a season at Auburn after leaving A&M and was at Incarnate Word the past two years before returning to his roots in the SEC. He and Alabama transfer Kendrick Law will look to give the 'Cats a boost.
Maybe they will. It still won't be enough for them to win anything of note.
Vanderbilt Commodores
(Insert joke about Vanderbilt beating Alabama last season here).
There. Did you get that out of your system? The 'Dores got lightning in a bottle a year ago with Diego Pavia and Jerry Kill. They saved Clark Lea's job. Vanderbilt made a bowl game for the first time in the Lea era and finished above .500 for the first time since 2013.
Pavia is back for one more run in Nashville. He might be able to recreate some of 2024's magic. Maybe it's enough to get Vanderbilt back to a bowl game for the second year in a row. It won't be enough for them to beat Alabama again or seriously threaten for the SEC crown.