This stat should terrify Alabama fans heading into the SEC Tournament

It’s no secret that Nate Oats is one of the most analytically driven head coaches in college basketball. Alabama plays as fast and shoots as many threes as any team in the country, and that’s pretty much been the case since he arrived in Tuscaloosa in 2019. 

However, an analytically sound shot diet isn’t all three-pointers. There’s a particular profile that Oats has found success with, and though this year’s team has won eight straight heading into Tuesday night’s matchup at Georgia, there’s an alarming underlying number that should terrify Alabama fans as the SEC Tournament and March Madness approach. 

Alabama is missing a key piece of the Nate Oats offense

There are a few reasons that Oats brought back Charles Bediako for his ill-fated attempt to regain his collegiate eligibility. Of course, there is the lack of depth in the front court, the defensive rebounding lapses that have at times plagued the Tide, and even the need for a secondary rim protection outside of Aiden Sherrell. 

However, those aren’t the biggest intended impacts that Oats had in mind for Bediako. Where he really needed him was on the offensive end of the floor, particularly within about 4.5 feet or so of the rim. Those field goal attempts at the rim are where the Tide are seriously lacking, and a lob-threat like Bediako, either to spell Sherrell or play with him, is what Alabama needed to provide a much higher floor for the offense and ease the reliance on its outside shooting. 

Bediako played just five games, and yet he provided a fairly illustrative sample size in this regard. When he’s been off the floor, or the roster, just 30 percent of Alabama’s field goal attempts are coming at the rim. In the 108 minutes with Bediako on the floor, that number jumped to 33.1 percent. 

While that difference may not appear significant, it is the difference between the 38th percentile nationally and the 62nd (according to CBBanalytics.com). It also pulls the Tide closer to the 37.4 percent mark set by the 2023-24 Alabama team that made a run to the Final Four, which is essentially the platonic ideal of Nate Oats basketball. 

That’s not to belabor the Bediako saga, but it’s to understand and illustrate the weakness that Oats was hoping to account for with that move and recognize how his absence could hurt the team in March. 

Labaron Philon Jr. and Aden Holloway are capable drivers and provide enough rim pressure to find open shooters for spray-out threes, and to get to their own stepback jumpers. However, without having a lob threat on the field at all times to serve as the gravitational center of the five-out offense, the spacing is just a little bit off, the threes tend to be just a little more difficult, and the range of potential outcomes is a little bit wider. 

In a single-elimination setting, that’s terrifying, especially for a team that ranks 257th in the country in turnover margin at -0.8, and 189th in rebounding margin, so they aren’t getting additional possessions to make up the difference. 

The Tide is a good team, and one of the most prolific offenses in the sport, but they’re missing the rim pressure they need to fully unlock this roster, and it will likely cost Oats a shot at another Final Four.