No. 11 Alabama makes the trip to Baton Rouge this weekend to take on the No. 14 LSU Tigers. Both teams entered the year as national title contenders and now headed in to Week 10 both teams are facing an elimination game thanks to a pair of losses.
The Bayou Bengals dropped their opener to USC and then found the hot hand and won six-straight before 2nd half dominance by Texas A&M dealt LSU their second loss on the year.
The Tigers had a strong start at Kyle Field and went to the half with a 17-7 lead. Then with the second half Texas A&M’ flipped the script.
Aggies Head Coach Mike Elko made a surprising change at quarterback. Turning the offense over to freshman dual-threat Marcel Reed. Reed then exploded using his legs to dash across the field gashing the Tigers for 62-yards on 9-carries. Reed helped the Aggies outscore the Tigers 31-7 in the second half.
Defensively Elko had his dominant front seven pin their ears back and attack LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier. Suddenly the junior quarterback didn’t have time to hold the ball and let his speedster receivers find open space. The Aggies defense condensed the field keeping everything in front of them, leading to three second half interceptions for Nussmeier.
How Alabama can replicate the Texas A&M gameplan
Entering the game against LSU the game plan for Alabama is basically the same one that led to LSU’s 2nd half come apart. Get the ball in to the hands of quarterback Jalen Milroe and let one of the best dual-treat QB’s in the country get his legs going, stay in the face of Nussmeier and most importantly keep everything in front of you.
For Alabama Head Coach Kalen DeBoer, keeping the ball in the hands of Milroe won’t be a problem. Since he arrived in Tuscaloosa Milroe has been using his legs to let the naysayers know he is one of the best runners in the country.
Per Pro Football Focus, Milroe’s 12-rushing touchdowns are 3rd most among quarterback, his 483 yards are the 17th most by a quarterback this season, and his 91 carries rank him 8th in the country in rushing attempts among quarterbacks.
Where Milroe’s legs go the rest of the Alabama offense will follow. In Alabama’s six wins Milroe has 73 carries, 429 yards, and 11 TD’s all while averaging 5.87 yards per carry. Against an LSU defense that ranks 48th in the nation against the run DeBoer will need to put the onus on his veteran quarterback to carry the offense both figuratively and literally.
Defensively the plan of keep the pressure on Nussmeier and keeping the wide receivers in front of you is significantly more difficult. The Crimson Tide ranks 45th in sacks this season with 18. Que Robinson, Alabama’s leader in sacks this season, is outside of the top 50 with only 4.5.
Meanwhile LSU has done a great job of keeping Nussmeier up in the pocket. On the season the Tigers have only allowed four sacks. Per ProFootballFocus the Tigers pass protection is ranked 19th in the country, with Nussmeier only being pressured on 24% of his dropbacks. The difference with his numbers when kept clean versus pressured are stark when opponents have been able to get to him. On the year when kept clean Nussmeier has gone 177-256 for a 69.1% 2,180 yards, 19 touchdowns and four interceptions. When pressured the numbers fall off starkly 30-77 a 39% completion percentage with only 448 yards, 1 touchdown, and 5 interceptions. His ProFootballFocus passer rating drops from 87.8 to 51.5.
On top of doing a great job of preventing pressure from getting to Nussmeier, he has thrived when blitzed. Completing 69 of 115 passes for 758 yards, nine touchdowns to one interception. It will be up to Kane Wommack’s defense to apply pressure without a blitz to get to Nussmeier.
When it comes to pushing the ball down the field the Tigers thrive on their big playmakers extending plays after the catch. LSU has one of the fastest wide receiver corps in the country and thrives with the ball in their hand. Four of the eight receivers on the roster with catches average more than five yards after the catch. From the tight end spot, the always reliable Mason Taylor averages 5.2 yards after the catch, and from the running back spot Caden Durham, Josh Williams, and Ju’Juan Johnson all average more than 10 yards after the catch.
Against Texas A&M the Tigers were able to post solid yards after catch, however, A&M was able to largely limit LSU’s ability to extend plays with the ball in the receiver's hands. With the exception of being able to exploit coverage against strong safety Dalton Brooks, the vast majority of A&M’s defenders did a great job of containing the LSU receivers after the catch.
For Alabama, the path to victory is easy to see from a distance, but will the Crimson Tide be able to make the adjustments needed to win remains to be seen.