Over the years, I have generally defended the CFB Playoff Selection Committee's decisions. Last season, I accepted Alabama Football being excluded from the playoffs because of the Crimson Tide's dismal performance against Oklahoma. Alabama's later loss to Michigan further proved that the Crimson Tide was not a worthy playoff team.
A problem with the 12-team format is that every season, unworthy teams will make the playoffs. When, not if, the format expands to 16 or more teams, even more unworthy teams will be selected. I define 'unworthy' as teams that are subjectively not viable contenders to win a National Championship. Subjectivity always sparks debate, but like it or not, subjectivity is part of the playoff selection process.
This cycle, beginning with Tuesday night's third rankings, I expect some undefendable bad committee decisions. The Alabama Crimson Tide will drop, and it has no one to blame but itself. With two losses, and one of them being a now 5-5 FSU team, Alabama is vulnerable. The vulnerability is not in failing to make the final playoff field but in seeding.
The Crimson Tide will likely drop to a No. 8, No. 9, or No. 10 seed. Two of those seeds are for first-round road teams.
Arguments can be made that Alabama Football deserves to be ranked higher. One argument comes from ESPN's Strength of Record (SOR). Alabama is No. 8. BYU is No. 6, and Oregon is No. 7. Notre Dame's SOR is No. 12.
Alabama Football and wins over Ranked Teams
A stronger argument is comparing wins over ranked teams. The Crimson Tide has four wins over currently AP-ranked teams: No. 4 Georgia, No. 12 Vanderbilt, No. 20 Tennessee, and No. 23 Missouri. The two-loss Notre Dame Fighting Irish have one win over a ranked team: No. 16 USC. Two one-loss teams, BYU and Oregon, do not have resumes sufficient to be ranked above Alabama. BYU has one win over a ranked team: No. 13 Utah. Oregon has zero wins over ranked teams.
Also, like its Big Ten mates, Ohio State, Indiana, and USC, Oregon has an unimpressive Strength of Schedule (SOS). The Ducks are at No. 31. USC is No. 36, Indiana is No. 38, and the Buckeyes have an SOS of No. 50. The SOS for Alabama is No. 4.
Tuesday night, the committee will rank Oregon and Notre Dame above Alabama. Neither the Ducks nor the Irish will deserve a higher ranking. The committee should explain why Alabama is ranked lower. The Crimson Tide having 'two losses' will not be a sufficient answer.