For Alabama football fans, the 23-21 loss to Oklahoma was disappointing, almost dispiriting. No doubt the loss was disheartening to Alabama Crimson Tide players as well.
Turnovers and Special Teams mistakes gave the Sooners double-digit points and took away three Alabama points. In an evenly matched game, one team making so many mistakes is going to beat itself.
The Crimson Tide defense played well. Kane Wommack's defense held the Sooners to 212 total yards. Against SEC teams, Oklahoma went into the game averaging 318 yards.
The Alabama offense produced 406 yards and 23 first downs to Oklahoma's 13. Three turnovers to none for OU doomed the Crimson Tide's chance to win.
What has suddenly changed for the Alabama Crimson Tide
The loss to Oklahoma did almost nothing to Alabama's probability of making the CFB Playoffs. The Crimson Tide will drop in the rankings, but based on ESPN's All State Playoff Predictor, Alabama has at worst a 95% probability of making the Playoff field by beating Eastern Illinois and Auburn.
Closing with a win over the Auburn Tigers will likely mean Alabama advances to Atlanta. Going to Atlanta and losing the SEC Championship Game is the 95% Playoff probability scenario. ESPN projects a 10-3 Alabama would be the Playoff's No. 8 seed.
Finishing 10-2 and not advancing to Atlanta gives the Crimson Tide its best Playoff position, according to ESPN, a 98% probability with a No. 6 seed. If the Allstate Playoff Predictor is accurate, winning the SEC Championship game would only move the Crimson Tide up to the No. 7 seed.
Much different from the almost no change in playoff probability is the increased pressure Kalen DeBoer will be under in an Auburn Iron Bowl. It will be a game Alabama should win, and could win easily. An upset by Auburn would not only knock Alabama out of the Playoffs, but it would also dramatically change the direction of the Alabama Crimson Tide program. Kalen DeBoer would be seen again as a poor successor to Nick Saban. A season that showed such promise would be seen as a collapse.
No prediction of Crimson Tide gloom is being offered here. Alabama can still accomplish much if it is the resilient team DeBoer has often described this season.