The last two games have shown exactly what Ty Simpson is capable of. Alabama's starting QB was nearly perfect in wins over UL Monroe and Wisconsin, completing 41-of-46 passes for 608 yards and seven touchdowns. He'll see a big increase in competition on Saturday night in Athens, but he's full of confidence from back-to-back sparkling performances, and Georgia's secondary looks ripe for the picking.
Yeah, you read that right. This is not a vintage Kirby Smart defense. Quite frankly, the Bulldogs haven't been that in a couple of years, particularly on the back-end.
In Georgia's last game, the Bulldogs were able to eke out an impressive road win over Tennessee, but it was a shootout. A 38-38 tie in regulation that Georgia pulled out in overtime. Tennessee's Joey Aguilar lit Georgia up through the air, throwing for 371 yards and four touchdowns. The Vols QB made a couple of mistakes with two interceptions, which proved to be vital in a game that went to overtime.
The vaunted Georgia pass rush only sacked Aguilar once. He had plenty of time, and he picked them apart.
Ty Simpson is going to do the same thing if Alabama's offensive line can keep him upright.
These stats have to be keeping Kirby Smart up at night ahead of the Alabama game
When I say this isn't a vintage Georgia defense, this is why:
Net EPA (expected points added)/Play Defense: 97th
EPA/Pass Defense: 97th
Early Downs EPA/Play Defense: 85th
Pass Defense Success Rate: 101st
(All stats courtesy of Game on Paper)
Aguilar and Tennessee exposed a lot of flaws for Georgia on the back-end. Smart is an excellent football coach and has had two weeks to find solutions, but Alabama will present even more problems than Tennessee did.
I think Simpson is a better QB than Aguilar. I know Alabama's wide receivers are better than Tennessee's.
Georgia will undoubtedly try to heat Simpson up and hope he reverts back to abandoning the pocket like he did against Florida State. They'll hope by putting pressure on him and changing the pre-snap picture, he'll throw with less anticipation, and that will lead to him holding onto the ball longer and ultimately allow the Bulldogs to rack up sacks.
But something clicked for Simpson the last two weeks. He's confident in his offensive line, and he has a ton of faith in Alabama's elite crop of wide receivers. It's not just Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard that Georgia will have to worry about; it's guys like Isaiah Horton, Lotzeir Brooks, and Rico Scott, too.
Kalen DeBoer lit up Smart's defense through the air last year. It was Jalen Milroe's most prolific passing game of his Alabama career. This year, Alabama has a better passing quarterback and a better play caller in Ryan Grubb instead of Nick Sheridan.
If Simpson plays like the guy we saw in the last two games, he's going to have a big day in Athens and lead the Crimson Tide to a massive victory.