For a two-month stretch in September and October, Ty Simpson played the quarterback position about as well as one could play it. After a rocky start against Florida State, Simpson flourished for Alabama, leading the Crimson Tide to eight straight wins and rocketing up draft boards and the Heisman Trophy conversation.
But a November swoon knocked Simpson out of the Heisman race, and nearly kept the Crimson Tide out of the College Football Playoff.
Too much of the blame for Alabama's offensive struggles has been placed on Simpson's shoulders, though he certainly deserves some of it. But so does the play-calling, the offensive line, and the receivers.
The book is out on what makes Simpson uncomfortable. Brent Venables took advantage of it in the first meeting, sending blitz-after-blitz after Simpson a month ago in Tuscaloosa. It was a game plan that Georgia replicated two weeks ago in Atlanta.
Beating the blitz has been Simpson's Achilles heel down the stretch, and it's likely to decide the game on Friday night.
Ty Simpson must find an answer to Oklahoma's constant pressures
In the regular-season meeting against Oklahoma, Simpson faced blitzes on 66.7% of his dropbacks, per PFF. His numbers vs. the blitz vs. when Oklahoma played coverage were stark.
Simpson averaged 7.0 yards per attempt against the blitz, and 8.6 without it. He had three turnover-worthy plays vs. pressure, including both of his turnovers in the game. A blitz caused him to throw early on the pick-six, and then a blitz later caused the sack and fumble late in the third quarter that ultimately decided the game.
For the full season, Simpson averages 8.2 yards per attempt when not facing pressure. When pressured, that number drops to 6.9. He has 12 turnover-worthy plays this season when blitzed (5.5% of his drop-backs), and only three when not (1.0%).
Since Week 12, Simpson has completed only 54% of his passes when facing a blitz on just 5.8 yards per pass attempt. That includes five turnover-worthy plays. He's faced a 25.7% pressure rate and has been sacked nine times. That's where the offensive line and blitz pickup have to help him, which is also what makes potentially getting both Jam Miller and Josh Cuevas back this week so critical for the Tide's offensive success.
Alabama's receivers haven't been QB-friendly during that span either. They've carried a 17% drop-rate, something that must improve. At a certain point, someone has to go make a play for their QB to take some of the pressure off him.
Ryan Grubb can help with his play calling too. Quicker route concepts to get the ball out, designed rollouts away from pressure, more screens, etc. The long-developing routes that are a staple of this offense can only work if your offensive line is good enough to hold up to pressure. Alabama's isn't.
A non-insignificant part of Simpson's recent struggles has been a lack of confidence. Not necessarily in his own ability, but in his receivers to make plays for him, his offensive line to hold up, and his backs and tight ends to pick up free blitzers.
It's hard to blame him when you look at the numbers or when you turn on the film.
There's only so much he can do. And no, a change at QB wouldn't make anything better. Throwing an inexperienced Austin Mack or Keelon Russell into the lion's den behind an overwhelmed offensive line and a slumping WR room would be malpractice.
For better or worse, this is Simpson's game. Hopefully, he'll get help from those around him, and he can get back to ripping the ball as we saw during the first couple of months of the season.
If he does, this Alabama team is dangerous. If he doesn't, it'll be a quick playoff exit.