Updated weather for Alabama at Oklahoma gives the Crimson Tide a big CFP advantage

It’s still a week away, so things can change, but for now, the weather for Alabama’s first-round College Football Playoff matchup with Oklahoma in Norman is expected to provide ideal conditions for the Crimson Tide offense. The current forecast predicts clear skies with temperatures falling through the 40s throughout the game. 

Kickoff is scheduled for Friday, December 19, at 7:00 p.m. CT at Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. 

Clear skies in Norman are good news for Ty Simpson and the Tide

Oklahoma finished the regular season seventh in scoring defense and ninth in total defense, but by EPA/play and success rate is the No. 2 defense in the country. Brent Venables is known for his exotic blitz packages and disrupting quarterbacks, but the Sooners have particularly excelled against the run this year. 

OU ranks No. 1 in opponent rushing success rate, and in its Week 12 win over Alabama, held the Crimson Tide to 80 yards on the ground and 2.4 yards per carry. Yet, the Tide finished with 412 total yards as Ty Simpson threw for 326 yards and a touchdown. 

Alabama is no stranger to struggling on the ground. The Tide rank outside the top 100 in all meaningful rushing metrics, and are 131st in rushing success rate. Simpson has had to carry the offense all year, and though he’s struggled lately and turned the ball over twice against the Sooners, clear conditions will give him the best chance to threaten Oklahoma through the air. 

You could argue that some of Alabama’s struggles on the ground have stemmed from offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb’s unwillingness to stick with the run. However, a win-or-go-home game, Oklahoma isn’t a great time to test that theory with a steady diet of Jam Miller and Daniel Hill. Grubb and DeBoer should, and almost certainly will, lean into their strengths and put the game on Simpson’s shoulders. 

As a defense-first team with an offense that always looks stuck in mud, Oklahoma would prefer sloppy conditions, and maybe even a bit of snow or rain to help turn the game ugly two days before the official start of winter. It doesn’t appear, though, that Mother Nature will be helping out the Sooners. 

Oklahoma has had a knack for turning every game into a slopfest, regardless of the conditions. So it’s not out of the question that the Sooners make things ugly on both sides of the ball anyway. Still, it’s good news for Alabama that Simpson won’t need to battle the elements along with the best defense in the country.