Dabo Swinney was never a serious candidate to replace Nick Saban at Alabama in January of 2024. Whether that was Swinney not being interested or Greg Byrne's apprehension to focus the search on a coach whose best years were clearly behind him - or a combination of both - his name was never linked to the job in the aftermath of Saban's retirement.
For years, it seemed obvious that Swinney, the former Alabama wide receiver and assistant coach, was the natural successor to Saban. But he won two National Championships at Clemson and became the best coach in the history of that program. That made it a lot more difficult to jump ship, especially to a place he's intimately familiar with the expectations at.
Perhaps Swinney regrets not pushing to try to land the Alabama job now. Clemson's downturn has continued. Though the Tigers made the College Football Playoff last year, they weren't a serious threat to win the National Championship. That didn't stop outsized preseason expectations for Swinney's team this year, however, but Clemson has fallen flat on its face.
Clemson's latest loss - a stunning one-point defeat to Duke - dropped the Tigers to 3-5 on the season. It's the first time in 15 years Clemson has lost more than four games under Swinney, who built the Tigers into one of the most consistent programs in the country during his 17 years. More losses are likely to follow, and even making a bowl game at this point seems like an uphill battle for a team that entered the season with National Championship aspirations.
But the truth is that this downturn was predictable - and likely unavoidable. It's been five years since Clemson finished a season ranked in the Top 10. It's been that long since it has finished with fewer than three losses, too.
Swinney has looked for years now, despite his recent change of tune on the Transfer Portal, like a coach who was completely out of touch in this new era of college football. It happens to almost everyone eventually. It's hard to sustain success for the amount of time he has. The game has passed him by, and his best years as a coach are long behind him.
According to USA Today's Matt Hayes, however, Swinney could have avoided this downturn had he taken the Alabama job two years ago.
"Swinney saw fastball all the way two years ago when he could’ve had the Alabama job," Hayes writes. "Now he’s another curveball away from the whole thing imploding."
Matt Hayes says Dabo Swinney could have had the Alabama job after Nick Saban retired
"Could have had the Alabama job" is certainly news to anyone who was around during the coaching search 22 months ago. Swinney's name was never seriously connected. Greg Byrne had a shortlist of candidates for the job, and it didn't seem to include Swinney, despite his obvious ties to the university and his pedigree as a two-time National Championship-winning coach.
Byrne saw what we all saw: a coach struggling to adapt to the new era of college football. He wanted someone who had proven they could win in today's landscape, not one wandering the wilderness and talking about what used to be.
He found that in Kalen DeBoer, who had just taken a Washington team to the National Championship Game. If DeBoer could do that with the talent limitations in Seattle, what could he do with the Crimson Tide's roster?
Through growing pains in year one, Alabama is well-positioned to get to the College Football Playoff in year two, sitting at 7-1 and ranked No. 4 in the initial committee rankings that were released on Tuesday night.
Alabama wouldn't be where they are right now if Swinney were the man in charge. His downfall as a head coach was obvious to anyone paying attention, and wouldn't have been saved by the logo on his hat.