Alabama Football didn’t play in week 10, but it was able to increase its playoff odds with a little bit of chaos from around the country.
After a quiet week 9 that saw very few changes in the playoff odds, week 10 did not disappoint. AP top-12 teams such as Texas A&M, Clemson, and Iowa State all fell to unranked teams, greatly diminishing their own playoff chances.
Big 12 title contender Kansas State also lost, while SMU blasted Pittsburgh in a ranked ACC matchup. The collective results of the weekend may have cost both the Big 12 and ACC an additional playoff bid.
The Big Ten and SEC continued to be the most dominant and consistent leagues, with Ohio State outlasting Penn State in a top-5 contest that headlined the weekend.
With week 10 in the books, here is my updated College Football Playoff prediction:
Seed | Team | Bid Status | Previous Ranking |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Georgia | SEC Champion | 1 |
2 | Ohio State | Big Ten Champion | 2 |
3 | Miami | ACC Champion | 3 |
4 | BYU | Big 12 Champion | 4 |
5 | Oregon | At-large | 5 |
6 | Texas | At-large | 6 |
7 | Indiana | At-large | Not ranked |
8 | Penn State | At-large | 7 |
9 | Tennessee | At-large | 8 |
10 | Notre Dame | At-large | 11 |
11 | Alabama | At-large | Not ranked |
12 | Boise State | Mountain West Champ | 12 |
The SEC will be the most intriguing league to watch in November. I only have three teams firmly in the field right now in Georgia, Texas, and Tennessee. The Bulldogs and the Vols both looked very mortal in unimpressive wins while the Longhorns got the week off.
As the regular season winds down, the SEC still has at least four contenders in play. Alabama, LSU, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss all have two losses and must win out to stay alive. Alabama travels to Baton Rouge to take on LSU and Ole Miss hosts Georgia in week 11, so next weekend could be a massive elimination weekend in the league.
As it currently stands, I’m predicting the winner of the Bama-LSU game to get into the field, and I think Bama pulls off the road win.
Big Ten stays solid
Ohio State cemented itself as one of college football’s elites and avoided a second loss by beating Penn State in Happy Valley. The Buckeyes are my projected Big Ten champ, but the league’s top four is very strong this year. Top-ranked Oregon feels like a shoe-in, and so does Penn State even after the loss.
Indiana looked as impressive as ever, advancing to 9-0 with a dominant win over Michigan State in Kurtis Rourke’s return. The Hoosiers and the Buckeyes will meet in Columbus on November 23rd in what could be a huge game. If both teams handle business until then, however, both will likely make the playoff.
ACC chaos
In spite of another subpar defensive showing, Miami continued to field one of the best offenses in the country and remained undefeated with a 53-31 win over Duke.
Clemson and Pitt’s losses this week really hurt the postseason odds of both teams. It was the second loss for Clemson, and Pitt took its first setback but has no quality wins to lean on. The Tigers and Panthers square off two weeks from now, and the winner could still have a glimmer of playoff hope.
SMU is worthy of being in the field at the moment, and it looks like the Mustangs will be in the ACC title game barring any major upsets. However, SMU already has an early season loss to BYU on its resume and its best wins are against Louisville and Pitt.
Even if it finishes the regular season 11-1, I think SMU needs to upset Miami to make the playoff. Otherwise, the ACC will be a one-bid league.
Big 12 and Group of Five
Similarly, the Big 12 may now be a one-bid league after two of its top teams were upset over the weekend.
Kansas State’s late collapse and loss to Houston was its second of the season, a tough blow for my preseason Big 12 champion. Iowa State also lost late to Texas Tech, ending the Cyclones’ undefeated campaign. Iowa State can still battle back into the playoff discussion, but it will have to win out and likely beat BYU in the title game. For now, the Big 12 is a one-bid league in my eyes.
At 8-0 and sitting at the top of the American Conference standings, Army is very intriguing. However, I still have Boise State winning out and finishing as the highest-ranked Group of Five champion, ultimately rounding out the playoff field.
Look for the chaos (and playoff predictions) to continue throughout the month of November!