A wild college football weekend proved to be a pivotal one for Alabama Football. The Crimson Tide’s 42-13 statement win over LSU cemented it as a playoff team, assuming it can continue winning. Meanwhile, Georgia’s loss at Ole Miss was somewhat surprising on its face, but its lopsided nature was shocking.
As a result, Bama makes a big jump in the SEC standings as well as the playoff pecking order. The Tide likely won’t make the SEC Championship game; there is a vicious logjam of 1- and 2-loss teams at the top of the league and Bama has already lost a tie-breaker game to Tennessee. However, Kalen DeBoer’s squad is playing its best ball, and could be in prime position to rest on championship weekend and comfortably earn an at-large spot.
Here is my updated College Football Playoff prediction coming out of week 11:
Seed | Team | Bid Status | Previous Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Ohio State | Big Ten Champ | 2 |
2 | Texas | SEC Champ | 6 |
3 | BYU | Big 12 Champ | 4 |
4 | Miami | ACC Champ | 3 |
5 | Oregon | At-large | 5 |
6 | Indiana | At-large | 7 |
7 | Penn State | At-large | 8 |
8 | Tennessee | At-large | 9 |
9 | Alabama | At-large | 11 |
10 | Notre Dame | At-large | 10 |
11 | Ole Miss | At-large | Not ranked |
12 | Boise State | Mountain West Champ | 12 |
Big Ten Champion Ohio State moves into my no. 1 overall seed with the SEC cannibalizing itself. Oregon, Indiana, and Penn State are all easily in the field as Big Ten at-large teams.
In this playoff scenario, Big Ten runner-up Oregon would host Boise State in a regular season rematch and intriguing regional bout. Indiana would host Ole Miss in what would likely be a high-scoring affair, and Penn State would host Notre Dame in a game that could be the exact opposite.
Miami finally took its first loss, but the Hurricanes should still win the ACC. With Clemson losing last week and Pitt losing back-to-back games, the league continues to look less than impressive. Unless SMU can run the table and beat the Canes in the ACC title game, this will be a one-bid league.
Similarly, the Big 12 will likely have just one playoff representative. BYU got a huge comeback win against in-state rival Utah to remain undefeated, and is still my projected conference champ.
Iowa State and Kansas State have had a meltdown over the last two weeks, going a combined 0-3 against unranked opponents. As a result, Colorado is suddenly in the driver’s seat to play in the Big 12 Championship game. Can Coach Prime’s squad spoil BYU’s party?
I would imagine the Cougars still make the field if they finish the regular season undefeated and then lose in the conference championship, so Colorado could be the first major bid-stealer in this 12-team playoff era.
Boise State continues to be my projected Group of Five champion, but Army is still undefeated and will be in that conversation as well.
Chaotic SEC season continues
I now have Texas as my projected SEC champion, but I don’t have much confidence in that prediction. With several huge regular season games still left on the SEC schedule, it’s hard to guess who will even be playing in the SEC title game, much less who will win it.
As of now, Texas, Tennessee, Alabama, and Ole Miss are in the field in my opinion. If my prediction holds serve, Texas will get a bye while Ole Miss will travel to Bloomington, Indiana to take on the Hoosiers.
How about Alabama potentially returning to Neyland Stadium for a revenge game in the first round of the College Football Playoff? It would be tough to envision a more intense college football environment. For Alabama fans, not much would be sweeter than the Tide getting retribution against a hated rival in a postseason elimination game.
Georgia is still very much in the playoff picture and will have an opportunity to play its way back into the field with a home game against Tennessee next week. Likewise, Texas A&M could help its cause with a road win over Texas at the end of the season.
If the Bulldogs and the Aggies both win out along with Alabama and Ole Miss, it could create a nightmare scenario with six 2-loss teams at the top of the league (Missouri could also finish with two losses, but they aren’t viewed as a legitimate contender).
In this particular scenario, Texas A&M would be in the SEC title game with only one conference loss, but their opponent would be up in the air and ultimately determined by tiebreakers.
How many of these teams would be given at-large bids? And how would the committee handle a team that gets its third loss in the SEC title game? It’s safe to say that one or more SEC teams that feel deserving of a playoff bid would be left out.
The first year of the 16-team, divisionless SEC has not disappointed. I expect the fireworks to continue as the regular season winds down.